Washington State @ Fresno State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Fresno State

Weather at kickoff87°F8 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Washington State

4-1 · Power #68

▲ winner

Final

Fresno State

3-2 · Power #84

final

Closing spread

WSU -3.5

✓ WSU W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

WSU 30–27 FRES

✓ WSU (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSU -3.5

CloseWSU -3.5

Total61.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWSU -3.5

no move

CloseWSU -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open61.5

▼ 1

Close60.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WSU -3.5 · unchangedmodel WSU -4

model WSU -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 41% (82 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSU -3.5

CloseWSU -3.5

Total61.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WSU as a 3.5-point road favorite at FRES, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: WSU won 25–17; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 60.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.9 against an average line of 3; 59.5 points a game (usually 53.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARK @ AUB 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	41–27	W	O60
Close	UCF @ MEM 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & season form	-3	35–28	W	O60.5
Close	ORST @ CAL 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & spread	-2	25–39	L	O56.5
Close	BAY @ WVU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	40–43	L	O55
Close	ORST @ WSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-4	24–31	L	U59
Close	MRSH @ FAU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-1.5	28–13	W	U57.75
Close	TULN @ MEM 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	31–21	W	U55
Close	UCF @ CIN 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	28–26	L	U60
Close	MIA @ FSU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	28–31	L	U61.25
Close	USU @ SDSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.25	32–24	W	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSU WW––L	2-1	67%	0-1	1-0
FRES –LWWL	2-2	50%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: WSU away, as favorite; FRES home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSU OU––O	2-1	67%	4-1
FRES –OUUO	2-2	50%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 12. 45% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSU	5-5 50%	4-4 50%	5-3 63%
FRES	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSU+2.5 →+4.2▲ 1.7#53

FRES−2.4 →−1.7▲ 0.7#76

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

WSU

Longer bar = better

FRES

#27

Offense

◀ WSU better

#88

#105

Defense

FRES better ▶

#61

+0.8 #28

Turnovers

◀ WSU better

+0.2 #58

70 plays #35

Pace

Even

70 plays #38

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSU has the ball

Advantage: WSU offense

	WSU off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	41.8 #13	28.0 #93	WSU
Yards / play	7.06 #18	5.41 #62	WSU
PPA / play	+0.23 #36	+0.02 #32	Even
Success rate	46% #42	40% #56	Even

When FRES has the ball

Even matchup

	FRES off	WSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.2 #55	32.4 #117	FRES
Yards / play	5.67 #83	6.37 #119	FRES
PPA / play	+0.04 #109	+0.15 #97	Even
Success rate	40% #103	42% #86	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WSU scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSU scored	10.6 #13	14.8 #4	25.4 #8	5.6 #81	9.2 #28	14.8 #50
FRES allowed	5.4 #78	4.8 #28	10.2 #52	4.0 #36	13.8 #132	17.8 #126

FRES scoring against the WSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	8.0 #34	8.8 #59	16.8 #47	8.2 #30	6.2 #82	14.4 #55
WSU allowed	6.8 #97	8.0 #80	14.8 #96	8.0 #112	8.4 #112	16.4 #118

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.