New Mexico State @ Jacksonville State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Wed, Oct 9, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Jacksonville State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F7 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico State

1-4 · Power #130

final

Final

Jacksonville State

2-3 · Power #81

▲ winner

Closing spread

JXST -21.5

✓ JXST W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 67 pts

Model before kickoff

NMSU 17–38 JXST

✓ JXST (93%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJXST -21

CloseJXST -21.5

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJXST -21

0.5 → JXST

CloseJXST -21.5

0.5 pts toward Jacksonville State

Total

Open57.5

▲ 1

Close58.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JXST -21 · closed JXST -21.5 · moved 0.5 toward JXSTmodel JXST -19

model JXST -19

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 20.5–22.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 45% (42 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJXST -21

CloseJXST -21.5

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JXST as a 21.5-point home favorite against NMSU, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: JXST won 54–13; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 67 points went over 58.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16 against an average line of 20.6; 58.2 points a game (usually 54.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNT vs FIU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-21.5	52–14	W	O63.25
Very close	UL vs TXST 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-21	45–0	W	U58
Close	GASO vs ULM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-16.5	38–28	L	O60.5
Close	NEV vs UNLV 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-19	51–20	W	O58.25
Close	FRES vs UNM 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total & season form	-22.5	17–25	L	U58.5
Close	HAW vs NMSU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-18.5	48–34	L	O62.75
Close	M-OH vs AKR 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & spread	-20	34–21	L	O51
Close	MRSH vs ODU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-21	20–13	L	U62.5
Close	UL vs ULM 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-21.5	21–16	L	U55.25
Close	WMU vs AKR 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-24.5	45–40	L	O62

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU LWLLL	1-4	20%	0-2	1-3
JXST LLLWW	2-3	40%	1-1	2-2

Venue/role: NMSU away, as underdog; JXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU UUUUO	1-4	20%	1-4
JXST OOOUO	4-1	80%	2-3

Went over in Q4. Of 198 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
JXST	5-5 50%	5-4-1 56%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NMSU 1–0 JXST NMSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · NMSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Jacksonville State 17 @ New Mexico State 20	JXST -2.5	NMSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NMSU−7.8 →−20.5▼ 12.7#132

JXST−4.5 →−5.9▼ 1.4#93

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

NMSU

Longer bar = better

JXST

#121

Offense

JXST better ▶

#45

#116

Defense

Even

#105

−1.0 #120

Turnovers

JXST better ▶

+1.2 #11

64 plays #93

Pace

Even

65 plays #81

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NMSU off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	19.6 #119	34.4 #121	Even
Yards / play	4.13 #133	5.90 #100	JXST
PPA / play	+0.01 #114	+0.10 #76	JXST
Success rate	37% #119	47% #121	Even

When JXST has the ball

Advantage: JXST offense

	JXST off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	36.4 #25	35.0 #122	JXST
Yards / play	6.61 #31	6.49 #123	JXST
PPA / play	+0.15 #70	+0.29 #128	JXST
Success rate	45% #54	42% #89	JXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NMSU scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	4.0 #100	4.0 #126	8.0 #122	1.4 #132	10.2 #13	11.6 #96
JXST allowed	9.6 #127	12.6 #127	22.2 #130	4.0 #35	7.0 #88	11.0 #54

JXST scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	6.2 #69	11.0 #34	17.2 #49	8.8 #30	9.8 #18	18.6 #18
NMSU allowed	9.0 #125	9.4 #100	18.4 #119	5.8 #77	10.8 #127	16.6 #118

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.