Utah @ Arizona State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Fri, Oct 11, 2024, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Arizona State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff93°F10 mphDryWeather watch ›

Utah

4-1 · Power #49

final

Final

Arizona State

4-1 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTAH -5.5

✓ ASU W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

UTAH 23–18 ASU

✗ UTAH (62%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -3

CloseUTAH -5.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTAH -3

2.5 → UTAH

CloseUTAH -5.5

2.5 pts toward Utah

Total

Open45.5

▲ 1

Close46.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTAH -3 · closed UTAH -5.5 · moved 2.5 toward UTAHmodel ASU -0.5

model ASU -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 50% (60 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 44% (62 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -3

CloseUTAH -5.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTAH as a 5.5-point road favorite at ASU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ASU won 27–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.5 against an average line of 4.2; 42.9 points a game (usually 53.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PSU @ MSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	27–30	L	O51.5
Close	OKST @ WVU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & total	-3.5	24–3	W	U49
Close	WISC @ PUR 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	30–13	W	O41
Close	APP @ MRSH 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & season form	-2	21–28	L	O47.5
Close	NCST @ BC 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-3	33–7	W	U51
Close	NEB @ MINN 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	23–30	L	O48.5
Close	UK @ MSST 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	24–3	W	U44.5
Close	AFA @ CSU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-3	35–21	W	O45
Close	MIA @ NCSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-6	6–20	L	U44
Close	TA&M @ LSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar total	-6.25	24–27	L	O46.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH WLLWL	2-3	40%	1-1	2-3
ASU WWWLW	4-1	80%	3-0	1-1

Venue/role: UTAH away, as favorite; ASU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH UUOUU	1-4	20%	4-1
ASU OUOUO	3-2	60%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 53% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAH	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
ASU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UTAH 13–23 ASU ASU leads · 36 games since 1961 · UTAH has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	Arizona State 3 @ Utah 55	UTAH -10	UTAH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTAH+6.4 →+7.1▲ 0.7#34

ASU−3.3 →+4.6▲ 7.9#51

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

UTAH

Longer bar = better

ASU

#81

Offense

ASU better ▶

#37

#11

Defense

◀ UTAH better

#56

−0.2 #83

Turnovers

ASU better ▶

+0.6 #37

70 plays #37

Pace

Even

72 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTAH has the ball

Advantage: ASU defense

	UTAH off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	28.4 #72	23.8 #69	Even
Yards / play	5.97 #62	4.73 #22	ASU
PPA / play	+0.05 #108	+0.08 #66	ASU
Success rate	42% #82	40% #66	Even

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: UTAH defense

	ASU off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	33.2 #38	15.0 #15	UTAH
Yards / play	5.92 #67	4.65 #19	UTAH
PPA / play	+0.26 #27	−0.07 #9	Even
Success rate	50% #15	32% #2	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UTAH scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	5.4 #85	12.2 #21	17.6 #47	4.2 #108	6.6 #78	10.8 #108
ASU allowed	5.6 #83	5.4 #38	11.0 #54	4.8 #56	8.0 #101	12.8 #88

ASU scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	8.2 #33	11.6 #25	19.8 #25	7.4 #55	6.0 #87	13.4 #73
UTAH allowed	2.6 #21	3.4 #16	6.0 #9	4.4 #49	4.6 #40	9.0 #33

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.