Arizona @ Utah: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 10:15 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Utah · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Arizona

2-1 · Power #79

▲ winner

Final

Utah

4-0 · Power #49

final

Closing spread

UTAH -7.5

✓ ARIZ W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

ARIZ 21–29 UTAH

✗ UTAH (72%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -11.5

CloseUTAH -7.5

Total51.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTAH -11.5

4 → ARIZ

CloseUTAH -7.5

4 pts toward Arizona

Total

Open51.5

▼ 5

Close46.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTAH -11.5 · closed UTAH -7.5 · moved 4 toward ARIZmodel UTAH -10

model UTAH -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 55% (80 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -11.5

CloseUTAH -7.5

Total51.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTAH as a 7.5-point home favorite against ARIZ, the favorite won 4, covered 1, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ARIZ won 23–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 1.7 against an average line of 6.3; 42.1 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UK vs SC 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-4.5	14–24	L	U44.5
Close	JMU vs MRSH 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	12–26	L	U48.5
Close	TA&M vs MSST 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-7	22–26	L	O45.5
Close	CIN vs ECU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	27–25	L	O51.5
Close	ILL vs PUR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-6	24–31	L	O44
Close	PITT vs DUKE 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & team ratings	-6.5	28–26	L	O49
Loose	ARK vs MSST 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7	3–7	L	U46
Loose	DUKE vs WAKE 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & spread	-6.5	24–21	L	O41
Loose	AFA vs BOIS 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.25	14–19	L	U46.5
Loose	UTAH vs CAL 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & spread	-9.5	34–14	W	O43

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARIZ LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	0-1
UTAH WLLW	2-2	50%	1-1	2-2

Venue/role: ARIZ away, as underdog; UTAH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARIZ OUU	1-2	33%	2-1
UTAH UUOU	1-3	25%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 53% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARIZ	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
UTAH	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ARIZ 1–0 UTAH ARIZ leads · 1 game since 2023 · ARIZ has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Utah 18 @ Arizona 42	ARIZ -2.5	ARIZ W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARIZ+9.2 →+4.7▼ 4.5#47

UTAH+6.4 →+9.9▲ 3.5#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ARIZ

Longer bar = better

UTAH

#45

Offense

◀ ARIZ better

#61

#79

Defense

UTAH better ▶

#11

−0.3 #90

Turnovers

UTAH better ▶

0.0 #72

58 plays #129

Pace

UTAH faster ▶

70 plays #37

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARIZ has the ball

Advantage: UTAH defense

	ARIZ off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #66	13.0 #13	UTAH
Yards / play	7.58 #10	4.35 #16	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #30	−0.11 #10	Even
Success rate	43% #72	31% #4	UTAH

When UTAH has the ball

Even matchup

	UTAH off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #47	26.7 #87	UTAH
Yards / play	6.15 #55	5.29 #60	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #77	+0.13 #91	Even
Success rate	44% #63	41% #76	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ARIZ scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	8.0 #40	5.3 #109	13.3 #85	9.3 #22	7.3 #56	16.7 #38
UTAH allowed	2.5 #19	2.5 #12	5.0 #8	4.0 #39	4.0 #40	8.0 #29

UTAH scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	6.8 #67	14.5 #7	21.3 #24	5.3 #89	6.5 #72	11.8 #90
ARIZ allowed	7.0 #100	9.0 #101	16.0 #102	7.0 #94	3.7 #37	10.7 #52

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.