Utah @ Oklahoma State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Oklahoma State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff96°F9 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Utah

3-0 · Power #49

▲ winner

Final

Oklahoma State

3-0 · Power #87

final

Closing spread

UTAH -0.5

✓ UTAH W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

UTAH 25–25 OKST

✓ UTAH (52%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOKST -2.5

CloseUTAH -0.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOKST -2.5

3 → UTAH

CloseUTAH -0.5

3 pts toward Utah

Total

Open52.5

▲ 1

Close53.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OKST -2.5 · closed UTAH -0.5 · moved 3 toward UTAHmodel UTAH -1.5

model UTAH -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 47% (47 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (42 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOKST -2.5

CloseUTAH -0.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTAH as a 0.5-point road favorite at OKST, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UTAH won 22–19; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 53.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1 against an average line of 3.2; 55 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	16–31	L	U53
Close	ISU @ KU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	11–14	L	U59
Close	ASU @ BYU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	17–27	L	U50.5
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Close	FSU @ CLEM 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	31–24	W	P55
Close	AFA @ NEV 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-1.75	41–39	W	O54.25
Close	PITT @ GT 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	52–21	W	O57.5
Close	MICH @ PSU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	21–17	W	U48
Close	WIS @ WSU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	22–31	L	U58
Close	ORST @ WSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	35–38	L	O58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-2
OKST WLW	2-1	67%	1-1	—

Venue/role: UTAH away, as favorite; OKST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH UUO	1-2	33%	3-0
OKST OOU	2-1	67%	3-0

Stayed under: it needed 38 in the 4th quarter and got 25. 52% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAH	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
OKST	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTAH+6.4 →+10.2▲ 3.8#22

OKST+4.1 →+6.0▲ 1.9#35

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

UTAH

Longer bar = better

OKST

#46

Offense

Even

#41

#19

Defense

◀ UTAH better

#71

+0.3 #52

Turnovers

OKST better ▶

+1.0 #35

66 plays #61

Pace

OKST faster ▶

73 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTAH has the ball

Advantage: UTAH offense

	UTAH off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	36.7 #30	20.3 #62	UTAH
Yards / play	6.36 #51	6.11 #106	UTAH
PPA / play	+0.20 #59	+0.02 #58	Even
Success rate	46% #45	37% #57	Even

When OKST has the ball

Advantage: UTAH defense

	OKST off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	42.7 #18	11.0 #21	Even
Yards / play	6.09 #69	4.19 #24	UTAH
PPA / play	+0.33 #23	−0.14 #14	Even
Success rate	45% #55	31% #15	UTAH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 129 FBS teams

UTAH scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	9.0 #38	16.0 #10	25.0 #15	6.0 #74	5.7 #82	11.7 #81
OKST allowed	4.7 #66	4.3 #32	9.0 #48	2.3 #22	9.0 #112	11.3 #66

OKST scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	5.7 #74	11.7 #41	17.3 #51	12.3 #10	10.3 #16	22.7 #6
UTAH allowed	2.3 #25	3.3 #24	5.7 #19	5.3 #65	0.0 #1	5.3 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.