Oklahoma State @ Tulsa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Tulsa

Weather at kickoff76°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Oklahoma State

2-0 · Power #87

▲ winner

Final

Tulsa

1-1 · Power #131

final

Closing spread

OKST -17.5

✓ OKST W

Total

62.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

OKST 39–23 TLSA

✓ OKST (87%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOKST -20.5

CloseOKST -17.5

Total62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOKST -20.5

3 → TLSA

CloseOKST -17.5

3 pts toward Tulsa

Total

Open62.5

no move

Close62.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OKST -20.5 · closed OKST -17.5 · moved 3 toward TLSAmodel OKST -10

model OKST -10

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOKST -20.5

CloseOKST -17.5

Total62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OKST as a 17.5-point road favorite at TLSA, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: OKST won 45–10; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 62.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.4 against an average line of 14.1; 61.2 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MISS @ VAN 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-17	52–28	W	O59.5
Loose	MRSH @ CLT 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & total	-14.5	49–28	W	O62
Loose	UNC @ GT 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & total	-12	42–46	L	O65
Loose	APP @ TXST 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-19.5	24–36	L	O54.5
Loose	CCU @ ULM 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-12.5	28–21	L	U58
Loose	UAB @ UNT 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-12.5	40–6	W	U58
Loose	CCU @ USA 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest	-15	27–21	L	U55
Loose	FLA @ VAN 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & total	-14	24–31	L	U58
Loose	TULN @ RICE 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest	-10	30–28	L	O55
Loose	WAKE @ ODU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-13.75	27–24	L	U60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKST WL	1-1	50%	—	1-1
TLSA LW	1-1	50%	0-1	1-0

Venue/role: OKST away, as favorite; TLSA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKST OO	2-0	100%	2-0
TLSA OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 45% of games with totals 58.5–66.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKST	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
TLSA	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OKST+4.1 →+3.0▼ 1.1#52

TLSA−9.9 →−8.3▲ 1.6#99

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

OKST

Longer bar = better

TLSA

#67

Offense

TLSA better ▶

#26

#94

Defense

TLSA better ▶

#79

+1.5 #25

Turnovers

◀ OKST better

−0.5 #93

73 plays #28

Pace

◀ OKST faster

66 plays #69

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OKST has the ball

Even matchup

	OKST off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	41.5 #28	28.0 #104	OKST
Yards / play	5.34 #93	4.86 #63	TLSA
PPA / play	+0.18 #61	+0.18 #102	OKST
Success rate	41% #86	35% #46	TLSA

When TLSA has the ball

Advantage: TLSA offense

	TLSA off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	43.0 #22	25.5 #98	TLSA
Yards / play	7.45 #24	6.56 #121	TLSA
PPA / play	+0.36 #25	+0.03 #76	TLSA
Success rate	50% #33	39% #79	TLSA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 10 FBS teams

OKST scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	5.0	7.0	12.0	13.5	12.0	25.5
TLSA allowed	10.5	0.0	10.5	10.5	7.0	17.5

TLSA scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	8.5	20.5	29.0	7.0	7.0	14.0
OKST allowed	7.0	6.5	13.5	3.5	8.5	12.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.