UNLV @ Kansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Fri, Sep 13, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Kansas

Weather at kickoff74°F9 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

UNLV

2-0 · Power #42

▲ winner

Final

Kansas

1-1 · Power #35

final

Closing spread

KU -10.5

✓ UNLV W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

UNLV 23–33 KU

✗ KU (76%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKU -7.5

CloseKU -10.5

Total58.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKU -7.5

3 → KU

CloseKU -10.5

3 pts toward Kansas

Total

Open58.5

▼ 1

Close57.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KU -7.5 · closed KU -10.5 · moved 3 toward KUmodel KU -7.5

model KU -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 81%, covered 43% (53 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (27 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKU -7.5

CloseKU -10.5

Total58.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KU as a 10.5-point home favorite against UNLV, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 1 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: UNLV won 23–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 57.5, as in 9 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Went over

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 50%

Covers above normal, overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 13.6 against an average line of 9.3; 44.8 points a game (usually 55). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NCST vs TTU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-10.5	27–14	W	U55.75
Close	TCU vs SMU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-7	34–17	W	U63
Close	TA&M vs AUB 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-9	27–10	W	U51
Close	ND vs PUR 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	27–13	W	U58.5
Close	NEB vs BUFF 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-13.5	28–3	W	U54.5
Close	OKST vs ASU 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & season form	-11.75	34–17	W	U58.25
Loose	UNC vs SYR 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread	-9.5	40–7	W	U59
Loose	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	44–31	W	O52.5
Loose	SMU vs BYU 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-12.5	15–18	L	U56
Loose	FLA vs UK 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	16–26	L	U52.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNLV –W	1-0	100%	—	—
KU LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: UNLV away, as underdog; KU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV –O	1-0	100%	2-0
KU UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLV	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	6-3 67%
KU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UNLV 0–1 KU KU leads · 1 game since 2023 · KU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 26 2023	Kansas 49 @ UNLV 36	KU -7.5	KU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNLV−2.0 →+4.3▲ 6.3#48

KU+7.2 →+7.9▲ 0.7#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

UNLV

Longer bar = better

#39

Offense

Even

#48

#20

Defense

Even

#34

+1.0 #36

Turnovers

◀ UNLV better

−2.0 #131

72 plays #32

Pace

◀ UNLV faster

65 plays #78

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNLV has the ball

Even matchup

	UNLV off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	49.5 #10	13.0 #37	UNLV
Yards / play	7.01 #34	4.04 #28	Even
PPA / play	+0.28 #41	−0.06 #40	Even
Success rate	43% #71	32% #29	KU

When KU has the ball

Advantage: UNLV defense

	KU off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #62	10.5 #28	UNLV
Yards / play	6.59 #44	4.43 #45	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #63	−0.25 #6	UNLV
Success rate	52% #22	22% #2	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 6 FBS teams

UNLV scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	17.5	11.5	29.0	8.5	12.0	20.5
KU allowed	1.5	5.0	6.5	0.0	6.5	6.5

KU scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	3.5	18.5	22.0	7.0	3.5	10.5
UNLV allowed	3.5	0.0	3.5	3.5	3.5	7.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.