BYU @ SMU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Fri, Sep 6, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at SMU

Weather at kickoff87°F10 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

BYU

1-0 · Power #22

▲ winner

Final

SMU

2-0 · Power #15

final

Closing spread

SMU -12.5

✓ BYU W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

BYU 19–33 SMU

✗ SMU (83%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -11.5

CloseSMU -12.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSMU -11.5

1 → SMU

CloseSMU -12.5

1 pt toward SMU

Total

Open54.5

▲ 1

Close55.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SMU -11.5 · closed SMU -12.5 · moved 1 toward SMUmodel SMU -18

model SMU -18

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 10.5–14.5 since 2023: won 87%, covered 45% (75 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -11.5

CloseSMU -12.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 12.5-point home favorite against BYU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BYU won 18–15 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.6 against an average line of 13; 54.6 points a game (usually 54.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCLA vs USA 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & rest	-15.5	32–31	L	O59
Close	NCST vs TTU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-10.5	27–14	W	U55.75
Loose	WAKE vs VAN 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation	-9.5	36–20	W	U56.5
Loose	OU vs KSU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & rest	-13.5	34–41	L	O53
Loose	CLEM vs SYR 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-14	27–21	L	U50
Loose	OU vs WVU 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-17.5	16–13	L	U56.5
Loose	KU vs BYU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-9.5	38–27	W	O54.5
Loose	CIN vs IU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-16.5	45–24	W	O57
Loose	CIN vs HOU 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar spread & rest	-10.5	35–20	W	O52.5
Loose	TCU vs WVU 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-12.5	21–24	L	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BYU –	0-0	—	—	—
SMU L–	0-1	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: BYU away, as underdog; SMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BYU –	0-0	—	1-0
SMU U–	0-1	0%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 51% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BYU	3-7 30%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%
SMU	9-1 90%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BYU−4.1 →−2.1▲ 2.0#75

SMU+10.3 →+11.4▲ 1.1#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

BYU

Longer bar = better

SMU

#45

Offense

Even

#49

#70

Defense

SMU better ▶

#44

+1.0 #49

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #55

77 plays #16

Pace

◀ BYU faster

73 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BYU has the ball

Even matchup

	BYU off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	41.0 #49	15.5 #67	Even
Yards / play	6.84 #53	3.67 #35	Even
PPA / play	+0.48 #22	−0.20 #41	Even
Success rate	49% #54	28% #31	SMU

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: SMU offense

	SMU off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	44.0 #38	13.0 #55	Even
Yards / play	6.87 #50	4.53 #62	Even
PPA / play	+0.28 #60	+0.13 #89	SMU
Success rate	50% #49	38% #74	SMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.