Iowa State @ Iowa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Iowa

Weather at kickoff65°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Iowa State

1-0 · Power #24

▲ winner

Final

Iowa

1-0 · Power #30

final

Closing spread

IOWA -2.5

✓ ISU W

Total

36.5

▲ Over · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

ISU 17–19 IOWA

✗ IOWA (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -2.5

CloseIOWA -2.5

Total37.5 → 36.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIOWA -2.5

no move

CloseIOWA -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open37.5

▼ 1

Close36.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IOWA -2.5 · unchangedmodel IOWA -2

model IOWA -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (109 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -2.5

CloseIOWA -2.5

Total37.5 → 36.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 7 games most like IOWA as a 2.5-point home favorite against ISU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ISU won 20–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 7 similar games. 39 points went over 36.5, as in 6 of 7.

Favorite won

6 of 786%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 771%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 786%

Above normal · usually 47%

Only 7 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 10.3 against an average line of 3.4; 46.6 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 7 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	UK vs FLA 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-1.5	33–14	W	O45
Loose	ISU vs BAY 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	24–31	L	O45
Loose	IOWA vs PSU 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & rest	-2.5	23–20	W	O41
Loose	RUTG vs VT 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	35–16	W	O37.5
Loose	ILL vs IOWA 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	9–6	L	U36.5
Loose	BAY vs WVU 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-1	45–20	W	O45
Loose	CLEM vs NCST 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-6.5	30–20	W	O45.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ISU L	0-1	0%	—	—
IOWA –	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: ISU away, as underdog; IOWA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ISU U	0-1	0%	1-0
IOWA –	0-0	—	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 29 earlier overs in games with totals 32.5–40.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ISU	6-4 60%	5-4-1 56%	5-4 56%
IOWA	7-3 70%	2-5 29%	0-6 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ISU 0–1 IOWA IOWA leads · 1 game since 2023 · IOWA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 9 2023	Iowa 20 @ Iowa State 13	IOWA -3.5	IOWA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ISU+4.2 →+3.8▼ 0.4#44

IOWA+2.5 →+3.3▲ 0.8#48

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

ISU

Longer bar = better

IOWA

#57

Offense

Even

#63

#59

Defense

IOWA better ▶

#23

+1.0 #33

Turnovers

IOWA better ▶

+3.0 #5

48 plays #132

Pace

IOWA faster ▶

71 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	ISU off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #104	0.0 #4	IOWA
Yards / play	7.35 #35	3.05 #17	Even
PPA / play	+0.35 #45	−0.37 #13	IOWA
Success rate	52% #42	35% #57	Even

When IOWA has the ball

Even matchup

	IOWA off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #50	3.0 #20	ISU
Yards / play	6.93 #50	4.10 #46	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #82	0.00 #71	Even
Success rate	46% #70	43% #97	IOWA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.