Jacksonville State @ Louisville: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Louisville

Weather at kickoff70°F11 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Jacksonville State

0-1 · Power #81

final

Final

Louisville

1-0 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

LOU -27.5

✓ LOU W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

JXST 12–39 LOU

✓ LOU (97%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -25.5

CloseLOU -27.5

Total58.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLOU -25.5

2 → LOU

CloseLOU -27.5

2 pts toward Louisville

Total

Open58.5

▼ 2

Close56.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LOU -25.5 · closed LOU -27.5 · moved 2 toward LOUmodel LOU -26

model LOU -26

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 25.5–29.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 52% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -25.5

CloseLOU -27.5

Total58.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like LOU as a 27.5-point home favorite against JXST, the favorite won 2, covered 1, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: LOU won 49–14; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 2 similar games. 63 points went over 56.5, as in 2 of 2.

Favorite won

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 96%

Favorite covered

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 59%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 31.5 against an average line of 28; 55.5 points a game (usually 56.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	MINN vs COLO 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & spread	-28	49–7	W	O47.5
Loose	WIS vs BUFF 2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread	-28	38–17	L	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JXST L	0-1	0%	—	—
LOU W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: JXST away, as underdog; LOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JXST O	1-0	100%	0-1
LOU O	1-0	100%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 185 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JXST	6-4 60%	5-3-2 63%	7-3 70%
LOU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JXST−4.5 →−7.7▼ 3.2#102

LOU+9.6 →+13.0▲ 3.4#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

JXST

Longer bar = better

LOU

#96

Offense

LOU better ▶

#10

#117

Defense

LOU better ▶

#15

−1.0 #93

Turnovers

LOU better ▶

+2.0 #14

57 plays #114

Pace

LOU faster ▶

62 plays #97

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JXST has the ball

Advantage: LOU defense

	JXST off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #85	0.0 #3	LOU
Yards / play	6.26 #64	1.83 #3	LOU
PPA / play	−0.25 #125	−0.33 #18	LOU
Success rate	37% #109	29% #34	LOU

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	62.0 #9	55.0 #132	LOU
Yards / play	9.21 #12	7.17 #122	LOU
PPA / play	+0.58 #12	+0.17 #95	LOU
Success rate	62% #8	52% #120	LOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.