Virginia @ Wake Forest: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Wake Forest · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Virginia

1-0 · Power #77

▲ winner

Final

Wake Forest

1-0 · Power #89

final

Closing spread

UVA -1.5

✓ WAKE W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

UVA 27–27 WAKE

✓ UVA (52%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWAKE -2.5

CloseUVA -1.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWAKE -2.5

4 → UVA

CloseUVA -1.5

4 pts toward Virginia

Total

Open54.5

▲ 1

Close55.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WAKE -2.5 · closed UVA -1.5 · moved 4 toward UVAmodel WAKE -3

model WAKE -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 52%, covered 50% (42 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWAKE -2.5

CloseUVA -1.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UVA as a 1.5-point road favorite at WAKE, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UVA won 31–30; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 55.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.8 against an average line of 3; 55.8 points a game (usually 53.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SMU @ HOU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-1	37–44	L	O61.5
Loose	WIS @ WSU 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar total & season form	-5.5	22–31	L	U58
Loose	AFA @ NEV 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & total	-1.75	41–39	W	O54.25
Loose	ISU @ KU 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & total	-3.5	11–14	L	U59
Loose	PITT @ TENN 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	41–34	W	O56
Loose	FSU @ CLEM 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & total	-2	31–24	W	P55
Loose	NCST @ BC 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation	-3	33–7	W	U51
Loose	TULN @ MEM 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation	-4.5	31–21	W	U55
Loose	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3	16–31	L	U53
Loose	FRES @ SDSU 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread & rest	-2	30–20	W	O44.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVA –	0-0	—	—	—
WAKE –	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: UVA away, as favorite; WAKE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVA –	0-0	—	1-0
WAKE –	0-0	—	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 190 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVA	4-6 40%	7-2 78%	5-2-2 71%
WAKE	2-8 20%	3-6 33%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UVA−2.9 →−3.6▼ 0.7#84

WAKE−3.0 →−3.6▼ 0.6#82

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

UVA

Longer bar = better

WAKE

#47

Offense

WAKE better ▶

#28

#60

Defense

◀ UVA better

#82

0.0 #72

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #62

63 plays #94

Pace

WAKE faster ▶

68 plays #56

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: UVA offense

	UVA off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #64	13.0 #49	Even
Yards / play	7.89 #26	4.88 #69	UVA
PPA / play	+0.40 #32	+0.10 #84	UVA
Success rate	46% #64	54% #126	UVA

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: WAKE offense

	WAKE off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	45.0 #34	13.0 #51	Even
Yards / play	7.54 #31	4.28 #57	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.46 #26	+0.11 #85	WAKE
Success rate	56% #22	33% #47	WAKE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.