Ole Miss @ Wake Forest: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 6:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Wake Forest

Weather at kickoff75°F9 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Ole Miss

2-0 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Wake Forest

1-1 · Power #89

final

Closing spread

MISS -20.5

✓ MISS W

Total

65.5

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

MISS 40–19 WAKE

✓ MISS (94%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -23

CloseMISS -20.5

Total63.5 → 65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MISS WW	2-0	100%	—	2-0
WAKE –W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: MISS away, as favorite; WAKE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MISS OU	1-1	50%	2-0
WAKE –O	1-0	100%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 42% of games with totals 61.5–69.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MISS	9-1 90%	5-3-2 63%	4-5 44%
WAKE	2-8 20%	4-5 44%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MISS+12.8 →+20.9▲ 8.1#5

WAKE−3.0 →−4.3▼ 1.3#88

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

MISS

Longer bar = better

WAKE

Offense

◀ MISS better

#41

#13

Defense

◀ MISS better

#96

+1.5 #22

Turnovers

◀ MISS better

+0.5 #44

78 plays #10

Pace

Even

76 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	64.0 #1	22.0 #77	MISS
Yards / play	9.21 #1	5.48 #90	MISS
PPA / play	+0.77 #1	+0.14 #98	MISS
Success rate	67% #1	48% #120	MISS

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: MISS defense

	WAKE off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	37.5 #38	1.5 #3	MISS
Yards / play	7.00 #34	3.49 #15	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #48	−0.14 #26	MISS
Success rate	48% #42	27% #8	MISS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 65 FBS teams

MISS scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	20.5	21.0	41.5	17.5	5.0	22.5
WAKE allowed	5.0	8.5	13.5	0.0	8.5	8.5

WAKE scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	8.5	10.0	18.5	15.5	3.5	19.0
MISS allowed	0.0	1.5	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.