Louisiana @ Wake Forest: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Wake Forest

Weather at kickoff77°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Louisiana

2-1 · Power #71

▲ winner

Final

Wake Forest

1-2 · Power #89

final

Closing spread

WAKE -2.5

✓ UL W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 79 pts

Model before kickoff

UL 28–30 WAKE

✗ WAKE (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWAKE -2.5

CloseWAKE -2.5

Total59.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWAKE -2.5

no move

CloseWAKE -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open59.5

▼ 1

Close58.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WAKE -2.5 · unchangedmodel WAKE -1

model WAKE -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 49% (128 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWAKE -2.5

CloseWAKE -2.5

Total59.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WAKE as a 2.5-point home favorite against UL, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UL won 41–38 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 79 points went over 58.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 4.7 against an average line of 2.5; 51.5 points a game (usually 53). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TLSA vs RICE 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	10–42	L	U56.5
Very close	UL vs GAST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	17–20	L	U62
Very close	NIU vs VAN 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	28–38	L	O58.5
Close	TLSA vs MEM 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-3	35–29	W	O60.5
Close	TLSA vs HOU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	10–45	L	O54
Close	WMU vs SJSU 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	23–3	W	U61.75
Close	WVU vs KU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-1.5	32–28	W	O56
Close	WASH vs UCLA 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	17–24	L	U55.5
Close	GAST vs MRSH 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	41–24	W	O53.5
Close	TULN vs UAB 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	21–28	L	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL –WL	1-1	50%	1-0	0-1
WAKE –WL	1-1	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: UL away, as underdog; WAKE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL –UO	1-1	50%	2-1
WAKE –OU	1-1	50%	1-2

Went over in Q3. Of 189 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UL	4-6 40%	4-4-1 50%	5-4 56%
WAKE	2-8 20%	3-6 33%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UL−5.1 →−2.4▲ 2.7#76

WAKE−3.0 →−4.8▼ 1.8#87

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

WAKE

#24

Offense

◀ UL better

#75

#67

Defense

◀ UL better

#118

−0.7 #102

Turnovers

WAKE better ▶

+0.3 #59

62 plays #101

Pace

WAKE faster ▶

75 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UL has the ball

Advantage: UL offense

	UL off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	35.7 #35	28.0 #95	UL
Yards / play	7.21 #19	6.47 #124	UL
PPA / play	+0.35 #17	+0.25 #120	UL
Success rate	49% #25	51% #131	UL

When WAKE has the ball

Even matchup

	WAKE off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #86	20.3 #51	UL
Yards / play	6.08 #65	4.94 #50	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #63	+0.11 #82	Even
Success rate	42% #84	42% #85	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UL scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	4.7 #87	16.3 #8	21.0 #27	11.3 #10	3.3 #119	14.7 #59
WAKE allowed	10.0 #125	6.7 #56	16.7 #108	2.3 #17	9.0 #119	11.3 #66

WAKE scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	6.7 #68	7.7 #84	14.3 #76	10.3 #16	2.3 #128	12.7 #73
UL allowed	2.3 #24	5.7 #42	8.0 #35	9.3 #124	3.0 #25	12.3 #78

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.