Louisiana @ Southern Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Southern Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F4 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Louisiana

3-1 · Power #71

▲ winner

Final

Southern Miss

1-3 · Power #132

final

Closing spread

UL -16.5

✓ USM W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

UL 37–21 USM

✓ UL (87%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUL -15.5

CloseUL -16.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUL -15.5

1 → UL

CloseUL -16.5

1 pt toward Louisiana

Total

Open57.5

▼ 1

Close56.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UL -15.5 · closed UL -16.5 · moved 1 toward ULmodel UL -14

model UL -14

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 54% (48 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUL -15.5

CloseUL -16.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UL as a 16.5-point road favorite at USM, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UL won 23–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 56.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.8 against an average line of 16.1; 61.8 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 3 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCLA @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16	34–16	W	U60.75
Very close	APP @ ULM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13.5	41–40	L	O51
Close	UAB @ LT 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-18	37–27	L	O55.5
Close	WKU @ RICE 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-19	42–21	W	O61.5
Close	M-OH @ KENT 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-14.5	23–3	W	U49.5
Close	HOU @ USF 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar total	-13.5	54–42	L	O53
Close	TOL @ MASS 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & situation	-19	41–24	L	O55.5
Close	UCLA @ STAN 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-17	42–7	W	U52
Close	WVU @ KU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-15.5	34–28	L	O55.5
Close	DUKE @ MTSU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-14.5	45–17	W	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL –WLW	2-1	67%	2-0	1-0
USM LW–L	1-2	33%	1-0	0-2

Venue/role: UL away, as favorite; USM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL –UOO	2-1	67%	3-1
USM UU–U	0-3	0%	1-3

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 53% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UL	5-5 50%	5-3-1 63%	6-3 67%
USM	3-7 30%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UL 5–24 USM USM leads · 29 games since 1953 · USM has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2023	Southern Miss 34 @ Louisiana 31	UL -7.5	USM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UL−5.1 →−2.4▲ 2.7#76

USM−10.1 →−17.4▼ 7.3#128

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

USM

#18

Offense

◀ UL better

#110

#94

Defense

◀ UL better

#115

−0.3 #89

Turnovers

◀ UL better

−2.0 #135

62 plays #108

Pace

◀ UL faster

53 plays #137

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UL has the ball

Advantage: UL offense

	UL off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #25	33.5 #119	UL
Yards / play	7.29 #14	6.37 #121	UL
PPA / play	+0.37 #13	+0.22 #110	UL
Success rate	50% #18	45% #110	UL

When USM has the ball

Even matchup

	USM off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	16.5 #126	24.8 #78	UL
Yards / play	5.80 #79	5.41 #68	Even
PPA / play	−0.11 #131	+0.19 #104	UL
Success rate	40% #102	49% #125	USM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UL scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	7.0 #56	14.0 #6	21.0 #25	11.0 #8	5.0 #109	16.0 #37
USM allowed	10.3 #128	9.3 #102	19.7 #124	12.3 #134	2.3 #9	14.7 #105

USM scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	7.0 #56	7.0 #89	14.0 #74	2.3 #126	5.7 #96	8.0 #124
UL allowed	2.5 #20	7.8 #75	10.3 #52	10.5 #129	4.0 #35	14.5 #103

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.