Houston @ TCU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Fri, Oct 4, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at TCU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff85°F7 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Houston

1-4 · Power #76

▲ winner

Final

TCU

3-2 · Power #34

final

Closing spread

TCU -16.5

✓ HOU W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 17–34 TCU

✗ TCU (89%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -17.5

CloseTCU -16.5

Total49.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTCU -17.5

1 → HOU

CloseTCU -16.5

1 pt toward Houston

Total

Open49.5

▲ 2

Close51.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TCU -17.5 · closed TCU -16.5 · moved 1 toward HOUmodel TCU -18

model TCU -18

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 43% (60 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (39 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -17.5

CloseTCU -16.5

Total49.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TCU as a 16.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 30–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18.2 against an average line of 15.9; 46.4 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCF vs NAVY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-15.25	14–17	L	U53
Very close	MD vs RUTG 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	37–0	W	U48.5
Close	UTSA vs ECU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	41–27	L	O48
Close	FRES vs WYO 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-14	30–0	W	U50.5
Close	ASU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-20	38–15	W	P53
Close	BSU vs WYO 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.75	23–13	L	U48.5
Close	WSU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.75	44–18	W	O52.5
Close	MINN vs ILL 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	6–14	L	U44
Close	BOIS vs USU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	42–23	W	O52
Close	AFA vs UNLV 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-18.5	48–14	W	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU –WW–L	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1
TCU LLL–W	1-3	25%	0-2	0-3

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; TCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU –UU–U	0-3	0%	1-4
TCU OUO–O	3-1	75%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 55% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	2-8 20%	4-4 50%	1-7 13%
TCU	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

HOU 0–1 TCU TCU leads · 1 game since 2023 · TCU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 16 2023	TCU 36 @ Houston 13	TCU -7.5	TCU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU−3.5 →−5.4▼ 1.9#90

TCU+7.0 →+8.5▲ 1.5#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

HOU

Longer bar = better

TCU

#131

Offense

TCU better ▶

#28

#43

Defense

◀ HOU better

#79

−1.2 #126

Turnovers

Even

−1.2 #125

58 plays #130

Pace

TCU faster ▶

73 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: TCU defense

	HOU off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	10.4 #137	31.0 #107	TCU
Yards / play	4.87 #120	4.95 #45	TCU
PPA / play	−0.12 #133	+0.14 #93	TCU
Success rate	33% #132	40% #70	TCU

When TCU has the ball

Even matchup

	TCU off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	38.6 #21	20.8 #48	TCU
Yards / play	6.42 #38	4.95 #46	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #29	+0.06 #63	TCU
Success rate	49% #22	34% #16	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

HOU scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	3.4 #110	1.8 #134	5.2 #133	2.4 #127	2.8 #130	5.2 #132
TCU allowed	7.6 #112	8.8 #95	16.4 #106	7.6 #106	7.0 #88	14.6 #102

TCU scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	7.6 #44	13.2 #14	20.8 #27	8.2 #40	9.6 #27	17.8 #28
HOU allowed	6.2 #93	4.8 #33	11.0 #57	4.8 #54	5.0 #55	9.8 #44

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.