UCF @ Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 7:45 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Florida

Weather at kickoff74°F7 mphgusts 12Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UCF

3-1 · Power #37

final

Final

Florida

2-2 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

UCF -1.5

✓ FLA W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

UCF 30–28 FLA

✗ UCF (55%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFLA -1

CloseUCF -1.5

Total59.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFLA -1

2.5 → UCF

CloseUCF -1.5

2.5 pts toward UCF

Total

Open59.5

▲ 1

Close60.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FLA -1 · closed UCF -1.5 · moved 2.5 toward UCFmodel UCF -2.5

model UCF -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 49%, covered 46% (57 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 44% (61 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFLA -1

CloseUCF -1.5

Total59.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCF as a 1.5-point road favorite at FLA, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: FLA won 24–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 60.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

3 of 838%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.5 against an average line of 2.9; 59.7 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TTU @ BAY 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	39–14	W	U59.5
Very close	ARK @ LSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	16–13	P	U59.5
Close	UCLA @ USC 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-3.5	62–33	W	O65.5
Close	APP @ UL 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.25	13–41	L	U57.5
Close	MIA @ FSU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	28–31	L	U61.25
Close	BYU @ WSU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	21–19	L	U56.5
Close	ORST @ CAL 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-2	25–39	L	O56.5
Close	BAY @ WVU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-3	40–43	L	O55
Close	LIB @ WKU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-4	42–29	W	O61.5
Close	KSU @ TTU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-1	25–24	P	U60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCF WWWL	3-1	75%	1-0	2-1
FLA LLL–	0-3	0%	0-3	0-2

Venue/role: UCF away, as favorite; FLA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCF OOOO	4-0	100%	3-1
FLA OUO–	2-1	67%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 45% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCF	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
FLA	3-7 30%	2-7 22%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCF+6.5 →+8.5▲ 2.0#27

FLA+8.5 →+4.2▼ 4.3#49

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

UCF

Longer bar = better

FLA

#25

Offense

◀ UCF better

#40

#69

Defense

◀ UCF better

#104

−0.5 #95

Turnovers

◀ UCF better

−1.0 #118

76 plays #5

Pace

◀ UCF faster

59 plays #129

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: UCF offense

	UCF off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	39.5 #20	27.3 #91	UCF
Yards / play	7.12 #22	5.69 #89	UCF
PPA / play	+0.22 #45	+0.26 #123	UCF
Success rate	51% #13	46% #114	UCF

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: FLA offense

	FLA off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #58	24.8 #77	Even
Yards / play	7.25 #16	5.41 #67	FLA
PPA / play	+0.16 #69	+0.12 #87	Even
Success rate	51% #15	38% #45	FLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UCF scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	6.8 #65	11.8 #26	18.5 #38	15.5 #2	5.5 #99	21.0 #10
FLA allowed	6.0 #89	8.5 #90	14.5 #94	10.3 #128	2.5 #8	12.8 #88

FLA scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	4.3 #95	8.8 #64	13.0 #86	8.8 #32	10.0 #16	18.8 #18
UCF allowed	7.0 #99	7.5 #67	14.5 #94	6.0 #77	4.3 #40	10.3 #45

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.