Nevada @ San José State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at San José State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff101°F12 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Nevada

2-3 · Power #102

final

Final

San José State

3-1 · Power #86

▲ winner

Closing spread

SJSU -7.5

✓ NEV W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

NEV 20–28 SJSU

✓ SJSU (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSJSU -7.5

CloseSJSU -7.5

Total47.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSJSU -7.5

no move

CloseSJSU -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

▲ 4

Close51.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SJSU -7.5 · unchangedmodel SJSU -8.5

model SJSU -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 54% (82 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSJSU -7.5

CloseSJSU -7.5

Total47.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SJSU as a 7.5-point home favorite against NEV, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: SJSU won 35–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 51.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 8.5; 63.5 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TOL vs EMU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-9.25	49–52	L	O54.5
Close	FAU vs UTEP 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-11	28–25	L	O49
Close	USA vs UL 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-11.5	20–33	L	U55
Close	BGSU vs ODU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation	-11	27–30	L	O51.5
Close	CAL vs ARIZ 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & total	-3.5	49–31	W	O50.5
Close	M-OH vs BUFF 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	45–18	W	O58
Close	NEB vs PUR 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	23–28	L	U54
Close	UL vs ARST 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.25	38–18	W	O51.25
Close	NMSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	34–17	W	O49.5
Close	CCU vs ODU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation	-11.25	21–49	L	O58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEV WWLLW	3-2	60%	1-1	2-1
SJSU WWW–	3-0	100%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: NEV away, as underdog; SJSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEV UOUUO	2-3	40%	2-3
SJSU OUU–	1-2	33%	3-1

Went over in Q3. Of 285 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEV	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
SJSU	8-2 80%	7-2 78%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NEV 21–8 SJSU NEV leads · 29 games since 1948 · NEV has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEV−15.0 →−9.1▲ 5.9#103

SJSU−2.2 →−3.5▼ 1.3#82

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

NEV

Longer bar = better

SJSU

#77

Offense

Even

#64

#85

Defense

SJSU better ▶

#40

−0.4 #93

Turnovers

SJSU better ▶

+0.5 #48

65 plays #82

Pace

SJSU faster ▶

68 plays #52

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEV has the ball

Advantage: SJSU defense

	NEV off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #98	23.8 #72	SJSU
Yards / play	5.83 #76	4.47 #20	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.17 #67	−0.08 #14	SJSU
Success rate	44% #65	38% #53	Even

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: SJSU offense

	SJSU off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #34	23.6 #71	SJSU
Yards / play	5.91 #68	5.83 #94	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.12 #80	+0.17 #101	SJSU
Success rate	43% #74	41% #75	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NEV scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	7.0 #55	4.6 #121	11.6 #98	7.8 #46	4.2 #113	12.0 #85
SJSU allowed	7.8 #116	5.0 #34	12.8 #76	3.5 #34	5.5 #59	9.0 #34

SJSU scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	7.8 #43	7.8 #80	15.5 #62	8.8 #31	9.8 #23	18.5 #20
NEV allowed	4.0 #41	8.8 #93	12.8 #78	3.2 #24	7.6 #101	10.8 #52

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.