Michigan State @ Oregon: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Fri, Oct 4, 2024, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Oregon · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Michigan State

3-2 · Power #70

final

Final

Oregon

4-0 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORE -21.5

✓ MSU W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

MSU 14–37 ORE

✓ ORE (95%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -24.5

CloseORE -21.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORE -24.5

3 → MSU

CloseORE -21.5

3 pts toward Michigan State

Total

Open52.5

no move

Close52.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORE -24.5 · closed ORE -21.5 · moved 3 toward MSUmodel ORE -27

model ORE -27

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 20.5–22.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 48% (40 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 43% (46 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -24.5

CloseORE -21.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 21.5-point home favorite against MSU, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 31–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 52.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 22.7 against an average line of 23.1; 57.7 points a game (usually 54.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ALA vs AUB 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-22	49–27	P	O51
Close	TENN vs MIZ 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-19	66–24	W	O57.5
Close	FSU vs VT 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-24	39–17	L	O52.5
Close	ORE vs COLO 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-24.5	52–29	L	O49.5
Close	UTAH vs COLO 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-24	28–13	L	U52.5
Close	ND vs WAKE 2023 · Week 12 · close	-23.5	45–7	W	O47.5
Close	CIN vs TLSA 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-22.5	28–20	L	U56
Close	OSU vs TLSA 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-24.5	41–20	L	O60.5
Close	CLEM vs GT 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-27.5	14–8	L	U52.5
Close	CLEM vs MIA 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-19	40–10	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSU LWLWL	2-3	40%	2-0	2-1
ORE –L–L	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: MSU away, as underdog; ORE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSU UOUUU	1-4	20%	3-2
ORE –O–U	1-1	50%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%
ORE	9-1 90%	4-4 50%	3-4-1 43%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSU−3.8 →−0.1▲ 3.7#66

ORE+22.4 →+20.6▼ 1.8#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

MSU

Longer bar = better

ORE

#93

Offense

ORE better ▶

#32

#40

Defense

Even

#28

−1.4 #128

Turnovers

ORE better ▶

0.0 #74

62 plays #109

Pace

ORE faster ▶

70 plays #37

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: ORE defense

	MSU off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #107	18.8 #37	ORE
Yards / play	5.95 #63	4.54 #25	ORE
PPA / play	+0.03 #109	+0.02 #41	ORE
Success rate	41% #91	32% #7	ORE

When ORE has the ball

Even matchup

	ORE off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	36.0 #32	19.0 #39	Even
Yards / play	6.46 #37	4.77 #32	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #42	+0.03 #44	Even
Success rate	51% #16	38% #44	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MSU scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	5.2 #88	10.8 #42	16.0 #63	1.2 #133	4.6 #108	5.8 #131
ORE allowed	3.3 #32	7.8 #78	11.0 #58	2.5 #15	5.3 #59	7.8 #28

ORE scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	7.0 #52	12.5 #22	19.5 #30	5.8 #84	10.8 #15	16.5 #39
MSU allowed	3.4 #36	6.0 #45	9.4 #45	6.8 #94	2.8 #20	9.6 #42

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.