Ohio State @ Michigan State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Michigan State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F10 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Ohio State

3-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Michigan State

3-1 · Power #70

final

Closing spread

OSU -23.5

✓ OSU W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

OSU 34–11 MSU

✓ OSU (95%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -24

CloseOSU -23.5

Total50.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -24

0.5 → MSU

CloseOSU -23.5

0.5 pts toward Michigan State

Total

Open50.5

▼ 3

Close47.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -24 · closed OSU -23.5 · moved 0.5 toward MSUmodel OSU -23.5 matches the line

model OSU -23.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -24

CloseOSU -23.5

Total50.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 23.5-point road favorite at MSU, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 38–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 47.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 23.3 against an average line of 22.2; 48.9 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UGA @ UK 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-22	13–12	L	U45
Close	UGA @ UK 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-22.5	16–6	L	U47.5
Close	MICH @ RUTG 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-26.5	52–17	W	O45
Loose	MICH @ MINN 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-18.5	52–10	W	O46
Loose	MIA @ TEM 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & rest	-23.5	41–7	W	O46.5
Loose	ORE @ ASU 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-22	49–13	W	O53.5
Loose	OSU @ RUTG 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation	-19	35–16	P	O42.5
Loose	MICH @ IU 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-23.5	31–10	L	U57.5
Loose	PSU @ NU 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-27	41–13	W	O46
Loose	MICH @ MD 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-17.5	31–24	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OSU LWL	1-2	33%	—	1-2
MSU LWLW	2-2	50%	0-2	2-0

Venue/role: OSU away, as favorite; MSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OSU OOO	3-0	100%	3-0
MSU UOUU	1-3	25%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 3 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 52% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OSU	8-2 80%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%
MSU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

OSU 1–0 MSU OSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · OSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Michigan State 3 @ Ohio State 38	OSU -32.5	OSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OSU+21.3 →+24.7▲ 3.4#3

MSU−3.8 →+0.8▲ 4.6#65

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

OSU

Longer bar = better

MSU

Offense

◀ OSU better

#89

#15

Defense

Even

#21

+0.7 #47

Turnovers

◀ OSU better

−1.3 #123

64 plays #87

Pace

Even

65 plays #80

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OSU has the ball

Even matchup

	OSU off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	52.3 #3	14.3 #24	OSU
Yards / play	8.58 #2	4.25 #17	Even
PPA / play	+0.64 #1	−0.09 #15	Even
Success rate	59% #4	35% #26	OSU

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	MSU off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	25.5 #96	6.7 #4	OSU
Yards / play	6.14 #60	2.97 #1	OSU
PPA / play	+0.08 #98	−0.09 #18	OSU
Success rate	40% #100	36% #38	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

OSU scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	11.7 #14	15.0 #7	26.7 #7	16.3 #1	9.3 #29	25.7 #1
MSU allowed	3.5 #46	2.3 #10	5.8 #14	5.0 #59	3.5 #35	8.5 #36

MSU scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	6.5 #70	11.8 #28	18.3 #43	1.5 #131	5.8 #91	7.3 #124
OSU allowed	3.3 #38	2.3 #15	5.7 #13	1.0 #6	0.0 #1	1.0 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.