Michigan State @ Boston College: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Boston College

Weather at kickoff58°F10 mphgusts 18Wet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Michigan State

3-0 · Power #70

final

Final

Boston College

2-1 · Power #58

▲ winner

Closing spread

BC -4.5

✓ MSU W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

MSU 20–25 BC

✓ BC (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBC -6.5

CloseBC -4.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBC -6.5

2 → MSU

CloseBC -4.5

2 pts toward Michigan State

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BC -6.5 · closed BC -4.5 · moved 2 toward MSUmodel BC -8

model BC -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 49% (73 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 41% (41 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBC -6.5

CloseBC -4.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BC as a 4.5-point home favorite against MSU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: BC won 23–19; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 45.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.6 against an average line of 3.6; 41.8 points a game (usually 52.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	USA vs TROY 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-3	6–10	L	U47
Close	AFA vs SDSU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	14–20	L	U39
Close	BAY vs WVU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-1	45–20	W	O45
Close	AFA vs BOIS 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & total	-2.25	14–19	L	U46.5
Close	WVU vs VT 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-2	27–21	W	U49.5
Close	RUTG vs TEM 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	36–7	W	U43.5
Close	WISC vs ILL 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & spread	-6.5	10–34	L	O43.5
Close	WSU vs CAL 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	28–9	W	U52.5
Close	UTSA vs UAB 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.75	34–31	L	O53.5
Close	PUR vs MINN 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	13–20	L	U46

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSU LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	1-0
BC WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: MSU away, as underdog; BC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSU UOU	1-2	33%	3-0
BC UOU	1-2	33%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 53% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
BC	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSU−3.8 →+0.6▲ 4.4#66

BC−1.3 →+5.6▲ 6.9#41

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

MSU

Longer bar = better

#84

Offense

BC better ▶

#44

#14

Defense

◀ MSU better

#29

−0.7 #100

Turnovers

BC better ▶

0.0 #79

64 plays #87

Pace

◀ MSU faster

60 plays #117

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: BC defense

	MSU off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	27.7 #85	13.3 #25	BC
Yards / play	6.40 #46	4.62 #34	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #100	−0.01 #35	BC
Success rate	40% #105	33% #21	BC

When BC has the ball

Advantage: MSU defense

	BC off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #38	11.3 #16	MSU
Yards / play	6.80 #28	4.02 #15	Even
PPA / play	+0.35 #19	−0.14 #8	Even
Success rate	41% #91	33% #18	MSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

MSU scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	7.7 #52	12.3 #34	20.0 #35	1.0 #126	6.7 #72	7.7 #117
BC allowed	1.0 #11	6.7 #60	7.7 #31	4.7 #53	1.0 #8	5.7 #21

BC scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	7.0 #55	16.3 #8	23.3 #19	7.0 #60	4.7 #96	11.7 #83
MSU allowed	4.7 #69	1.0 #3	5.7 #15	3.3 #33	2.3 #17	5.7 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.