Virginia @ Coastal Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Coastal Carolina

Weather at kickoff82°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Virginia

2-1 · Power #77

▲ winner

Final

Coastal Carolina

3-0 · Power #101

final

Closing spread

UVA -3.5

✓ UVA W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 67 pts

Model before kickoff

UVA 28–26 CCU

✓ UVA (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUVA -3

CloseUVA -3.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUVA -3

0.5 → UVA

CloseUVA -3.5

0.5 pts toward Virginia

Total

Open54.5

▼ 2

Close52.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UVA -3 · closed UVA -3.5 · moved 0.5 toward UVAmodel CCU -5.5

model CCU -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 41% (70 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUVA -3

CloseUVA -3.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UVA as a 3.5-point road favorite at CCU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: UVA won 43–24; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 67 points went over 52.5, as in 1 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 48%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 3 against an average line of 3; 43.8 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MRSH @ CCU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	6–34	L	U47
Close	WVU @ VT 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & total	-2	33–10	W	U49.75
Close	TULN @ MEM 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-4.5	31–21	W	U55
Close	TOL @ M-OH 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	21–17	W	U46.5
Close	WMU @ TOL 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest	-1.5	15–34	L	U54.5
Close	TTU @ WVU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	13–20	L	U54.5
Close	JMU @ USU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-5	45–38	W	O52.5
Close	FRES @ WYO 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-3	17–0	W	U53.5
Close	JXST @ NMSU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-0.25	17–20	L	U48.5
Close	UTSA @ FAU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	36–10	W	U58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVA –L–	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1
CCU WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: UVA away, as favorite; CCU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVA –O–	1-0	100%	2-1
CCU OOU	2-1	67%	3-0

Went over in Q3. Of 224 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVA	5-5 50%	5-3 63%	6-1-1 86%
CCU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UVA−2.9 →−4.6▼ 1.7#86

CCU−2.5 →−2.0▲ 0.5#75

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

UVA

Longer bar = better

CCU

#69

Offense

CCU better ▶

#43

#85

Defense

CCU better ▶

#58

−1.7 #129

Turnovers

CCU better ▶

+1.3 #20

67 plays #55

Pace

CCU faster ▶

71 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UVA has the ball

Even matchup

	UVA off	CCU def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #92	22.7 #78	Even
Yards / play	6.45 #43	5.29 #73	UVA
PPA / play	+0.16 #72	−0.14 #15	CCU
Success rate	44% #67	38% #64	Even

When CCU has the ball

Advantage: CCU offense

	CCU off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	41.0 #20	23.3 #81	CCU
Yards / play	6.08 #71	5.35 #76	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #53	+0.15 #93	CCU
Success rate	49% #28	41% #88	CCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 119 FBS teams

UVA scoring against the CCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	7.7 #50	11.3 #38	19.0 #41	2.3 #107	4.7 #81	7.0 #105
CCU allowed	2.0 #21	7.0 #64	9.0 #44	4.7 #49	9.0 #99	13.7 #86

CCU scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CCU scored	15.0 #6	11.3 #38	26.3 #12	9.0 #33	5.7 #70	14.7 #52
UVA allowed	3.3 #44	8.0 #75	11.3 #64	7.7 #92	4.3 #46	12.0 #67

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.