Utah State @ Temple: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Temple

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Utah State

1-2 · Power #106

final

Final

Temple

0-3 · Power #127

▲ winner

Closing spread

USU -6.5

✓ TEM W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 74 pts

Model before kickoff

USU 31–25 TEM

✗ USU (67%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSU -6.5

CloseUSU -6.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSU -6.5

no move

CloseUSU -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open52.5

▲ 1

Close53.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USU -6.5 · unchangedmodel USU -5.5

model USU -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 60% (70 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSU -6.5

CloseUSU -6.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USU as a 6.5-point road favorite at TEM, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: TEM won 45–29 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 74 points went over 53.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 7.3 against an average line of 6.7; 62.5 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OHIO @ AKR 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-9.75	34–17	W	U55
Close	NEV @ HAW 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.25	16–31	L	U51.5
Close	UNT @ USM 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.25	38–14	W	O49
Close	WKU @ MTSU 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	49–21	W	O54
Close	USU @ CONN 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	34–33	L	O51
Close	USU @ HAW 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-10.5	41–34	L	O55
Close	LT @ RICE 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	31–35	L	O52.5
Close	UTEP @ CLT 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	41–35	W	O56
Close	BGSU @ AKR 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-9	31–28	L	O49.5
Close	EMU @ AKR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total	-6.25	34–28	L	O57.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USU –LW	1-1	50%	0-1	—
TEM LLW	1-2	33%	1-0	1-2

Venue/role: USU away, as favorite; TEM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USU –UO	1-1	50%	1-2
TEM UOU	1-2	33%	0-3

Went over in Q4. Of 215 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USU	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	5-3-1 63%
TEM	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USU−6.9 →−11.3▼ 4.4#111

TEM−13.8 →−19.6▼ 5.8#132

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

USU

Longer bar = better

TEM

#87

Offense

◀ USU better

#133

#116

Defense

Even

#114

−1.0 #112

Turnovers

◀ USU better

−3.7 #137

62 plays #102

Pace

Even

63 plays #95

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USU has the ball

Advantage: USU offense

	USU off	TEM def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #115	39.0 #126	Even
Yards / play	6.56 #38	5.71 #90	USU
PPA / play	+0.06 #100	+0.27 #125	USU
Success rate	41% #93	46% #114	USU

When TEM has the ball

Even matchup

	TEM off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	11.3 #134	33.3 #120	Even
Yards / play	4.38 #130	6.04 #104	USU
PPA / play	−0.23 #137	+0.22 #110	USU
Success rate	32% #131	52% #129	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 119 FBS teams

USU scoring against the TEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	4.7 #75	3.3 #108	8.0 #105	5.7 #72	5.3 #77	11.0 #80
TEM allowed	13.3 #116	12.7 #109	26.0 #115	8.3 #100	4.7 #50	13.0 #82

TEM scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEM scored	1.0 #117	3.3 #108	4.3 #118	3.3 #98	3.7 #100	7.0 #105
USU allowed	4.3 #56	15.0 #116	19.3 #104	6.0 #70	8.0 #89	14.0 #90

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.