Charlotte @ Indiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Indiana

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Charlotte

1-2 · Power #119

final

Final

Indiana

3-0 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

IU -28.5

✓ IU W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

CLT 10–39 IU

✓ IU (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -27.5

CloseIU -28.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIU -27.5

1 → IU

CloseIU -28.5

1 pt toward Indiana

Total

Open50.5

no move

Close50.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IU -27.5 · closed IU -28.5 · moved 1 toward IUmodel IU -26.5

model IU -26.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 26.5–30.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 56% (45 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (30 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -27.5

CloseIU -28.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 28.5-point home favorite against CLT, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 9 went over the total.

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This game: IU won 52–14; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 50.5, as in 9 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 56%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 59%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 24.7 against an average line of 28.7; 58.5 points a game (usually 57.4). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MINN vs COLO 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-28	49–7	W	O47.5
Close	AUB vs GAST 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-27.5	34–24	L	O57.5
Close	CCU vs KU 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-27	49–22	P	O52
Close	ORST vs SDSU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-24.5	26–9	L	U48.5
Close	MICH vs NIU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-27.5	63–10	W	O55
Close	CIN vs TEM 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-30	52–3	W	O52.5
Loose	UK vs NIU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-26.75	31–23	L	O53
Loose	ND vs CMU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-34.75	41–17	L	O51.25
Loose	FRES vs UNLV 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-30	38–30	L	O59
Loose	PSU vs IU 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest	-31	33–24	L	O45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLT –W–	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0
IU LWW	2-1	67%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: CLT away, as underdog; IU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLT –O–	1-0	100%	1-2
IU UOO	2-1	67%	3-0

Went over in Q3. Of 230 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLT	3-7 30%	4-4 50%	5-3 63%
IU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLT−9.5 →−12.7▼ 3.2#118

IU−3.2 →+9.1▲ 12.3#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

CLT

Longer bar = better

#121

Offense

IU better ▶

#104

Defense

IU better ▶

#12

0.0 #79

Turnovers

IU better ▶

+2.0 #8

64 plays #82

Pace

Even

65 plays #75

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLT has the ball

Advantage: IU defense

	CLT off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #120	7.7 #12	IU
Yards / play	5.34 #102	3.36 #4	IU
PPA / play	−0.10 #129	−0.16 #10	IU
Success rate	32% #132	32% #20	IU

When IU has the ball

Advantage: IU offense

	IU off	CLT def	Edge
Points / game	50.0 #6	31.3 #114	IU
Yards / play	7.92 #9	6.56 #122	IU
PPA / play	+0.52 #7	+0.18 #99	IU
Success rate	61% #5	40% #81	IU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 111 FBS teams

CLT scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLT scored	1.0 #109	4.3 #94	5.3 #107	3.3 #91	9.3 #26	12.7 #56
IU allowed	0.0 #1	5.7 #40	5.7 #15	1.0 #7	1.0 #7	2.0 #3

IU scoring against the CLT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	18.7 #3	9.3 #48	28.0 #6	8.0 #37	14.0 #2	22.0 #8
CLT allowed	6.7 #79	9.0 #80	15.7 #81	6.7 #72	9.0 #92	15.7 #97

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.