Maryland @ Indiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Indiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F11 mphgusts 24Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Maryland

3-1 · Power #62

final

Final

Indiana

4-0 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

IU -7.5

✓ IU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

MD 22–29 IU

✓ IU (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -7

CloseIU -7.5

Total55.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIU -7

0.5 → IU

CloseIU -7.5

0.5 pts toward Indiana

Total

Open55.5

▼ 7

Close48.5

Down 7 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IU -7 · closed IU -7.5 · moved 0.5 toward IUmodel IU -6

model IU -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 54% (72 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -7

CloseIU -7.5

Total55.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 7.5-point home favorite against MD, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: IU won 42–28; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.4 against an average line of 7.6; 51 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	KSU vs MIZ 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest	-7	40–12	W	U52.5
Loose	MICH vs PSU 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & spread	-7	41–17	W	O48.75
Loose	UK vs SC 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & spread	-9.5	6–31	L	U41.5
Loose	ARK vs BYU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest	-8.25	31–38	L	O47.75
Loose	CIN vs HOU 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest	-10.5	35–20	W	O52.5
Loose	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-6	44–31	W	O52.5
Loose	MINN vs PUR 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-9	10–20	L	U53
Loose	JMU vs MRSH 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar total & situation	-9.5	12–26	L	U48.5
Loose	AUB vs ARK 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest	-2.5	14–24	L	U53.5
Loose	ALA vs TEX 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7	24–34	L	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MD WL–L	1-2	33%	—	—
IU LWWW	3-1	75%	2-1	3-1

Venue/role: MD away, as underdog; IU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MD OO–O	3-0	100%	3-1
IU UOOO	3-1	75%	4-0

Went over in Q3. Of 224 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MD	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	7-2 78%
IU	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MD 1–0 IU MD leads · 1 game since 2023 · MD has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	Indiana 17 @ Maryland 44	MD -14.5	MD W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MD+6.6 →+7.4▲ 0.8#30

IU−3.2 →+10.2▲ 13.4#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

#34

Offense

IU better ▶

#48

Defense

IU better ▶

#15

+1.8 #5

Turnovers

Even

+1.8 #4

73 plays #17

Pace

◀ MD faster

66 plays #72

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MD has the ball

Even matchup

	MD off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #40	9.3 #7	IU
Yards / play	6.36 #48	3.67 #7	IU
PPA / play	+0.32 #22	−0.07 #23	Even
Success rate	49% #26	34% #23	Even

When IU has the ball

Advantage: IU offense

	IU off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	50.5 #4	16.8 #34	IU
Yards / play	7.81 #8	5.28 #63	IU
PPA / play	+0.54 #3	−0.01 #35	IU
Success rate	62% #2	39% #59	IU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MD scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	11.3 #18	5.8 #104	17.0 #55	8.3 #40	9.5 #23	17.8 #30
IU allowed	0.0 #1	7.8 #82	7.8 #30	0.8 #4	0.8 #3	1.5 #2

IU scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	16.5 #4	12.3 #33	28.8 #5	9.5 #17	12.3 #11	21.8 #9
MD allowed	2.5 #32	5.0 #36	7.5 #27	4.3 #45	5.0 #60	9.3 #47

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.