Wisconsin @ USC: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at USC · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Wisconsin

2-1 · Power #47

final

Final

USC

2-1 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

USC -13.5

✓ USC W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

WIS 18–33 USC

✓ USC (85%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -14.5

CloseUSC -13.5

Total51.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSC -14.5

1 → WIS

CloseUSC -13.5

1 pt toward Wisconsin

Total

Open51.5

▼ 2

Close49.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USC -14.5 · closed USC -13.5 · moved 1 toward WISmodel USC -18

model USC -18

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 84%, covered 46% (58 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (33 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -14.5

CloseUSC -13.5

Total51.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USC as a 13.5-point home favorite against WIS, the favorite won 7, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: USC won 38–21; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 81%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.3 against an average line of 14; 50.1 points a game (usually 55.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORE vs CAL 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-13.5	24–17	L	U53.5
Very close	MD vs ILL 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	24–27	L	U52
Very close	MD vs NU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14.25	31–24	L	O51
Close	BAY vs TTU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-14	27–24	L	U51.5
Close	UCLA vs ASU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-14	7–17	L	U45.5
Close	MD vs IU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-14	44–17	W	O50
Close	FSU vs MIA 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-14.5	27–20	L	U50.5
Close	UCF vs NAVY 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-15.25	14–17	L	U53
Close	NCST vs SYR 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-11.5	41–17	W	O49.5
Close	MISS vs AUB 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-15.5	48–34	L	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIS LLL	0-3	0%	—	0-1
USC WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: WIS away, as underdog; USC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIS UUO	1-2	33%	2-1
USC UUO	1-2	33%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 237 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIS	5-5 50%	4-5-1 44%	4-6 40%
USC	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WIS+5.7 →+3.6▼ 2.1#53

USC+10.9 →+16.5▲ 5.6#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

WIS

Longer bar = better

USC

#83

Offense

USC better ▶

#37

#85

Defense

USC better ▶

#54

−0.7 #100

Turnovers

USC better ▶

+0.3 #58

74 plays #13

Pace

◀ WIS faster

70 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: USC defense

	WIS off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #113	15.7 #29	USC
Yards / play	4.79 #119	5.42 #69	USC
PPA / play	+0.16 #72	+0.03 #54	Even
Success rate	49% #28	39% #63	WIS

When USC has the ball

Advantage: USC offense

	USC off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #46	23.0 #68	USC
Yards / play	6.49 #40	5.69 #86	USC
PPA / play	+0.24 #40	+0.22 #112	USC
Success rate	50% #23	40% #72	USC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WIS scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	5.7 #77	4.3 #118	10.0 #106	4.3 #103	7.3 #55	11.7 #86
USC allowed	2.3 #24	5.7 #42	8.0 #35	4.3 #52	3.3 #33	7.7 #31

USC scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	3.3 #113	10.0 #55	13.3 #87	8.0 #45	11.7 #11	19.7 #19
WIS allowed	2.3 #24	8.0 #83	10.3 #59	8.0 #108	4.7 #54	12.7 #81

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.