Purdue @ Wisconsin: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Wisconsin · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F13 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Purdue

1-3 · Power #117

final

Final

Wisconsin

2-2 · Power #47

▲ winner

Closing spread

WIS -11.5

✓ WIS W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

PUR 17–29 WIS

✓ WIS (80%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWIS -13.5

CloseWIS -11.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWIS -13.5

2 → PUR

CloseWIS -11.5

2 pts toward Purdue

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WIS -13.5 · closed WIS -11.5 · moved 2 toward PURmodel WIS -14

model WIS -14

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 38% (49 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 45% (47 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWIS -13.5

CloseWIS -11.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WIS as an 11.5-point home favorite against PUR, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: WIS won 52–6; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 45.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 77%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.8 against an average line of 11.3; 42.8 points a game (usually 55.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MSU vs IU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-12	31–39	L	O47.25
Close	MSU vs RUTG 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	27–21	L	O41
Close	NU vs OHIO 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	35–6	W	U47.5
Close	CAL vs ASU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	24–21	L	U47.5
Close	WYO vs HAW 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-13.5	42–9	W	O45
Close	CAL vs COLO 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-8.25	26–3	W	U44
Close	SDSU vs NEV 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-11	0–6	L	U48.5
Close	MINN vs MSU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	27–12	W	U41
Close	WSU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.75	44–18	W	O52.5
Close	TLSA vs NAVY 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-11	17–20	L	U46

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PUR WLLL	1-3	25%	0-1	0-3
WIS LLLL	0-4	0%	0-3	0-2

Venue/role: PUR away, as underdog; WIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PUR UOOU	2-2	50%	1-3
WIS UUOO	2-2	50%	2-2

Went over in Q3. Of 196 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PUR	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
WIS	4-6 40%	3-6-1 33%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PUR 0–1 WIS WIS leads · 1 game since 2023 · WIS has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 22 2023	Wisconsin 38 @ Purdue 17	WIS -6	WIS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PUR+1.0 →−6.8▼ 7.8#97

WIS+5.7 →+3.1▼ 2.6#57

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

PUR

Longer bar = better

WIS

#95

Offense

Even

#89

#114

Defense

WIS better ▶

#98

−1.5 #131

Turnovers

WIS better ▶

−0.3 #86

55 plays #135

Pace

WIS faster ▶

68 plays #49

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PUR has the ball

Even matchup

	PUR off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #109	26.8 #89	Even
Yards / play	5.91 #67	5.70 #90	PUR
PPA / play	+0.01 #113	+0.23 #114	Even
Success rate	41% #89	42% #98	Even

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: WIS offense

	WIS off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #111	33.0 #117	Even
Yards / play	4.94 #119	6.21 #110	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #87	+0.27 #125	WIS
Success rate	47% #40	44% #105	WIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

PUR scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	1.8 #132	5.3 #111	7.0 #127	6.0 #78	8.8 #40	14.8 #54
WIS allowed	3.5 #42	6.8 #60	10.3 #53	9.5 #123	7.0 #89	16.5 #118

WIS scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	6.0 #73	6.8 #95	12.8 #86	3.3 #120	5.5 #91	8.8 #117
PUR allowed	5.3 #75	9.5 #105	14.8 #99	6.0 #75	12.3 #130	18.3 #128

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.