Purdue @ Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F10 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Purdue

1-4 · Power #117

final

Final

Illinois

4-1 · Power #44

▲ winner

Closing spread

ILL -21.5

✓ PUR W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 99 pts

Model before kickoff

PUR 15–36 ILL

✓ ILL (93%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenILL -20

CloseILL -21.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenILL -20

1.5 → ILL

CloseILL -21.5

1.5 pts toward Illinois

Total

Open49.5

▼ 3

Close46.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ILL -20 · closed ILL -21.5 · moved 1.5 toward ILLmodel ILL -18.5

model ILL -18.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 20.5–22.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 47% (43 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (56 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenILL -20

CloseILL -21.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ILL as a 21.5-point home favorite against PUR, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ILL won 50–49; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 99 points went over 46.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Below normal · usually 91%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 48%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 14.3 against an average line of 21.7; 53.5 points a game (usually 54.9). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SDSU vs UNM 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-19.5	31–7	W	U42.5
Close	PITT vs GT 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-21.5	21–26	L	P47
Close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Close	ORST vs COLO 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-23	42–9	W	O47.5
Close	SJSU vs CSU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-24	28–16	L	U44.5
Close	TOL vs WMU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-21.5	49–31	L	O52.5
Close	UAB vs RICE 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-23.75	24–30	L	O44.5
Close	TULN vs TLSA 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-24.5	24–22	L	U52.75
Close	FLA vs VAN 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-18.5	38–14	W	O51
Close	GT vs BGSU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread	-22	27–38	L	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PUR WLLLL	1-4	20%	0-2	0-4
ILL WWLWW	4-1	80%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: PUR away, as underdog; ILL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PUR UOOUO	3-2	60%	1-4
ILL UUUOU	1-4	20%	4-1

Went over in Q3. Of 228 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PUR	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
ILL	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PUR 48–47 ILL (6 tied) PUR leads · 101 games since 1892 · PUR has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	Illinois 19 @ Purdue 44	Pick’em	PUR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PUR+1.0 →−10.1▼ 11.1#108

ILL−0.5 →+4.0▲ 4.5#54

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

PUR

Longer bar = better

ILL

#109

Offense

ILL better ▶

#75

#123

Defense

ILL better ▶

#54

−1.2 #127

Turnovers

ILL better ▶

+1.0 #18

53 plays #136

Pace

ILL faster ▶

62 plays #112

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: ILL defense

	PUR off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	18.6 #122	14.2 #12	ILL
Yards / play	5.65 #86	4.94 #32	ILL
PPA / play	0.00 #118	+0.07 #62	ILL
Success rate	38% #110	45% #109	Even

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: ILL offense

	ILL off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	27.2 #84	36.8 #126	ILL
Yards / play	5.58 #90	6.62 #127	ILL
PPA / play	+0.22 #40	+0.29 #128	ILL
Success rate	42% #86	45% #110	ILL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

PUR scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	1.4 #133	5.4 #114	6.8 #131	4.8 #96	7.0 #62	11.8 #92
ILL allowed	4.0 #41	4.0 #19	8.0 #21	2.8 #16	3.4 #20	6.2 #12

ILL scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	7.6 #41	7.2 #90	14.8 #70	4.8 #96	6.2 #82	11.0 #102
PUR allowed	7.0 #99	9.0 #93	16.0 #102	9.0 #121	11.8 #129	20.8 #132

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.