Minnesota @ UCLA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at UCLA · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F3 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Minnesota

3-3 · Power #26

▲ winner

Final

UCLA

1-4 · Power #48

final

Closing spread

MINN -3.5

✓ MINN W

Total

39.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

MINN 22–18 UCLA

✓ MINN (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMINN -5

CloseMINN -3.5

Total40.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMINN -5

1.5 → UCLA

CloseMINN -3.5

1.5 pts toward UCLA

Total

Open40.5

▼ 1

Close39.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MINN -5 · closed MINN -3.5 · moved 1.5 toward UCLAmodel MINN -3

model MINN -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 52%, covered 41% (88 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (55 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMINN -5

CloseMINN -3.5

Total40.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MINN as a 3.5-point road favorite at UCLA, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 9 went over the total.

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This game: MINN won 21–17; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 39.5, as in 1 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 49%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 14.1 against an average line of 4.2; 51.3 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NEB @ MSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	17–20	L	O34.5
Very close	WIS @ ILL 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	25–21	W	O41
Very close	RUTG @ IU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	31–14	W	O39.5
Very close	NCSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	26–6	W	U43
Close	ISU @ BYU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	45–13	W	O41.5
Close	DUKE @ UVA 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	27–30	L	O47
Close	WSU @ STAN 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	52–14	W	O48.5
Close	PITT @ MIA 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.25	42–16	W	O44
Close	PITT @ VT 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	21–38	L	O40
Close	MINN @ NU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	41–14	W	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MINN WWLWW	4-2	67%	1-0	2-0
UCLA LL–WW	2-2	50%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: MINN away, as favorite; UCLA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MINN OUOOU	3-3	50%	3-3
UCLA UO–UU	1-3	25%	1-4

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 57% of games with totals 35.5–43.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINN	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
UCLA	3-7 30%	4-5 44%	2-7 22%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MINN−1.4 →+5.3▲ 6.7#47

UCLA+7.7 →−0.6▼ 8.3#71

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

MINN

Longer bar = better

UCLA

#72

Offense

◀ MINN better

#133

#28

Defense

◀ MINN better

#104

+0.8 #23

Turnovers

◀ MINN better

−0.8 #113

61 plays #115

Pace

◀ MINN faster

55 plays #135

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: MINN offense

	MINN off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #90	30.0 #101	Even
Yards / play	5.43 #103	5.70 #82	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.17 #61	+0.18 #105	MINN
Success rate	47% #32	49% #126	MINN

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: MINN defense

	UCLA off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #136	15.7 #13	MINN
Yards / play	4.79 #126	4.29 #6	MINN
PPA / play	−0.07 #132	0.00 #29	MINN
Success rate	31% #136	40% #63	MINN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MINN scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	2.0 #131	11.0 #27	13.0 #88	3.5 #115	9.2 #29	12.7 #79
UCLA allowed	7.0 #105	11.0 #117	18.0 #114	5.4 #68	6.6 #76	12.0 #65

UCLA scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	2.6 #126	4.8 #123	7.4 #129	3.2 #120	3.4 #129	6.6 #129
MINN allowed	2.3 #15	5.2 #35	7.5 #15	5.5 #71	2.7 #5	8.2 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.