Maryland @ Minnesota: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Minnesota · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Maryland

4-3 · Power #62

final

Final

Minnesota

4-3 · Power #26

▲ winner

Closing spread

MINN -5.5

✓ MINN W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

MD 20–25 MINN

✓ MINN (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMINN -3.5

CloseMINN -5.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMINN -3.5

2 → MINN

CloseMINN -5.5

2 pts toward Minnesota

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Close44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MINN -3.5 · closed MINN -5.5 · moved 2 toward MINNmodel MINN -4

model MINN -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 55% (89 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (73 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMINN -3.5

CloseMINN -5.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MINN as a 5.5-point home favorite against MD, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MINN won 48–23; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 4.4; 48.3 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SDSU vs NEV 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	23–21	L	U45
Very close	WVU vs OKST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3	34–48	L	O48.5
Very close	PUR vs MINN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Very close	TROY vs USA 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	28–10	W	U43.5
Very close	ASU vs KU 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	35–31	W	O50
Very close	KSU vs WVU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & situation	-6	34–17	W	O47
Very close	SC vs MSST 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & season form	-6	37–30	W	O47
Close	ILL vs PUR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & season form	-6	24–31	L	O44
Close	ISU vs TTU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-3.5	10–14	L	U47.5
Close	LOU vs DUKE 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-5	23–0	W	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MD –LLLW	2-4	33%	0-1	1-1
MINN WLWWW	5-2	71%	3-2	3-0

Venue/role: MD away, as underdog; MINN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MD –OOOO	6-0	100%	4-3
MINN UOOUU	3-4	43%	4-3

Went over in Q3. Of 216 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MD	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	8-1 89%
MINN	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MD+6.6 →+5.4▼ 1.2#44

MINN−1.4 →+5.7▲ 7.1#41

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

MINN

#67

Offense

Even

#72

#70

Defense

MINN better ▶

#28

+0.9 #22

Turnovers

Even

+1.1 #11

75 plays #7

Pace

◀ MD faster

61 plays #119

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MD has the ball

Advantage: MINN defense

	MD off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #65	15.9 #11	MINN
Yards / play	5.81 #73	4.45 #10	MINN
PPA / play	+0.13 #74	+0.01 #29	MINN
Success rate	45% #57	40% #63	Even

When MINN has the ball

Even matchup

	MINN off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #92	24.9 #74	Even
Yards / play	5.20 #109	5.60 #82	MD
PPA / play	+0.16 #56	+0.06 #51	Even
Success rate	47% #31	41% #74	MINN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MD scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	6.4 #58	6.3 #107	12.7 #92	7.7 #38	9.0 #26	16.7 #25
MINN allowed	3.0 #21	4.9 #26	7.9 #17	4.7 #48	3.3 #9	8.0 #16

MINN scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	1.7 #132	9.4 #46	11.1 #102	5.0 #90	8.9 #30	13.9 #63
MD allowed	3.4 #30	8.3 #80	11.7 #61	4.4 #39	8.7 #111	13.1 #85

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.