Washington @ Indiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Indiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F8 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Washington

4-3 · Power #31

final

Final

Indiana

7-0 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

IU -5.5

✓ IU W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

WASH 23–30 IU

✓ IU (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -6.5

CloseIU -5.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIU -6.5

1 → WASH

CloseIU -5.5

1 pt toward Washington

Total

Open52.5

▲ 1

Close53.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IU -6.5 · closed IU -5.5 · moved 1 toward WASHmodel IU -10.5

model IU -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 54% (87 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (70 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -6.5

CloseIU -5.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 5.5-point home favorite against WASH, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: IU won 31–17; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6.6 against an average line of 5.4; 57 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MISS vs UK 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	22–19	L	U55
Close	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Close	MINN vs PUR 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-9	10–20	L	U53
Close	MICH vs PSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	41–17	W	O48.75
Close	MSU vs NEB 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	23–20	L	U54.75
Close	LOU vs SMU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	27–34	L	O55
Close	TEX vs OKST 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.25	24–32	L	U61
Close	UNLV vs SYR 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar season form	-5.5	41–44	L	O55.5
Close	IU vs NEB 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-6.5	56–7	W	O48
Close	MISS vs TA&M 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	38–35	P	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WASH ––LWL	2-3	40%	0-2	0-2
IU WWWWW	6-1	86%	4-1	6-1

Venue/role: WASH away, as underdog; IU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WASH ––UOO	2-3	40%	4-3
IU OOOOO	6-1	86%	7-0

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WASH	6-4 60%	4-4 50%	3-4-1 43%
IU	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WASH+12.9 →+10.6▼ 2.3#21

IU−3.2 →+15.7▲ 18.9#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

WASH

Longer bar = better

#35

Offense

IU better ▶

#18

Defense

Even

#13

+0.1 #67

Turnovers

IU better ▶

+1.0 #14

68 plays #59

Pace

Even

67 plays #66

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WASH has the ball

Advantage: IU defense

	WASH off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	24.1 #96	13.7 #7	IU
Yards / play	6.70 #22	4.35 #5	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #14	−0.03 #10	Even
Success rate	51% #7	38% #29	WASH

When IU has the ball

Even matchup

	IU off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	48.7 #1	17.0 #16	Even
Yards / play	7.65 #4	4.44 #8	Even
PPA / play	+0.44 #5	−0.03 #12	Even
Success rate	59% #1	38% #36	IU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WASH scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	3.4 #115	9.7 #42	13.1 #88	5.1 #86	5.9 #92	11.0 #100
IU allowed	0.0 #1	7.9 #76	7.9 #17	3.4 #21	2.4 #2	5.9 #7

IU scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	11.4 #5	13.4 #3	24.9 #5	10.4 #10	13.4 #3	23.9 #2
WASH allowed	2.9 #15	7.0 #64	9.9 #38	3.3 #16	3.9 #18	7.1 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.