Syracuse @ UNLV: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Fri, Oct 4, 2024, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at UNLV

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Syracuse

3-1 · Power #43

▲ winner

Final

UNLV

4-0 · Power #42

final

Closing spread

UNLV -5.5

✓ SYR W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 85 pts

Model before kickoff

SYR 25–31 UNLV

✗ UNLV (68%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -4.5

CloseUNLV -5.5

Total57.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNLV -4.5

1 → UNLV

CloseUNLV -5.5

1 pt toward UNLV

Total

Open57.5

▼ 3

Close54.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNLV -4.5 · closed UNLV -5.5 · moved 1 toward UNLVmodel UNLV -10.5

model UNLV -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 54% (65 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 56% (45 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -4.5

CloseUNLV -5.5

Total57.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as a 5.5-point home favorite against SYR, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: SYR won 44–41 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 85 points went over 54.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.7 against an average line of 6.3; 61.1 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MISS vs UK 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	22–19	L	U55
Close	KSU vs TTU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	37–28	W	O56
Close	WKU vs TROY 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-5	27–34	L	O55
Close	IU vs MD 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	42–28	W	O49.5
Close	NCST vs LOU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-6	28–13	W	U57
Close	WSU vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	6–44	L	U56.5
Close	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-6	44–31	W	O52.5
Close	TULN vs MEM 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	38–28	W	O55.5
Close	UNLV vs FRES 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation	-2.5	59–14	W	O50.5
Close	LOU vs UK 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	31–38	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SYR LWLL	1-3	25%	—	1-0
UNLV –WWW	3-0	100%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: SYR away, as underdog; UNLV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SYR OUUU	1-3	25%	3-1
UNLV –OUO	2-1	67%	4-0

Went over in Q3. Of 235 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SYR	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
UNLV	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SYR−2.1 →+2.8▲ 4.9#59

UNLV−2.0 →+7.5▲ 9.5#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

SYR

Longer bar = better

UNLV

#34

Offense

Even

#44

#69

Defense

UNLV better ▶

#15

−0.3 #87

Turnovers

UNLV better ▶

+2.0 #4

75 plays #8

Pace

◀ SYR faster

66 plays #69

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SYR has the ball

Even matchup

	SYR off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	33.8 #42	13.8 #16	UNLV
Yards / play	6.36 #43	4.82 #38	Even
PPA / play	+0.28 #23	−0.20 #2	UNLV
Success rate	48% #29	30% #2	UNLV

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	45.3 #10	22.5 #63	UNLV
Yards / play	6.52 #34	5.37 #64	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.20 #49	+0.08 #69	Even
Success rate	42% #84	41% #78	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SYR scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	5.3 #82	13.8 #11	19.0 #34	7.8 #49	7.0 #58	14.8 #53
UNLV allowed	3.5 #43	2.5 #12	6.0 #11	3.5 #31	4.3 #44	7.8 #28

UNLV scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	13.0 #9	10.0 #51	23.0 #17	7.5 #56	14.8 #3	22.3 #7
SYR allowed	5.0 #71	7.5 #72	12.5 #76	3.5 #31	6.5 #78	10.0 #45

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.