Virginia Tech @ Stanford: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Stanford · Conference game

Weather at kickoff94°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Virginia Tech

2-3 · Power #38

▲ winner

Final

Stanford

2-2 · Power #96

final

Closing spread

VT -9.5

✓ VT W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

VT 30–22 STAN

✓ VT (74%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVT -6.5

CloseVT -9.5

Total53.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenVT -6.5

3 → VT

CloseVT -9.5

3 pts toward Virginia Tech

Total

Open53.5

▼ 4

Close49.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened VT -6.5 · closed VT -9.5 · moved 3 toward VTmodel VT -6.5

model VT -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 7.5–11.5 since 2023: won 81%, covered 61% (67 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 43% (60 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVT -6.5

CloseVT -9.5

Total53.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VT as a 9.5-point road favorite at STAN, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: VT won 31–7; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 49.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.1 against an average line of 8.8; 43.1 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WVU @ BAY 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-8.5	34–31	L	O54
Very close	UTAH @ STAN 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & spread	-10.25	52–7	W	O51.75
Close	CAL @ STAN 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	27–15	W	U53.5
Close	SMU @ ECU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-11.5	31–10	W	U49
Close	TULN @ FAU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-9	24–8	W	U47
Close	PUR @ IU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-10	30–16	W	U53
Close	CLEM @ SC 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-7.5	16–7	W	U48.25
Close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5
Close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5
Close	USC @ COLO 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-9	37–14	W	P51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VT LLWLW	2-3	40%	2-1	1-3
STAN WWWL	3-1	75%	2-0	2-1

Venue/role: VT away, as favorite; STAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VT OUOOO	4-1	80%	2-3
STAN OUUU	1-3	25%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 53% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
STAN	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VT+4.6 →+6.5▲ 1.9#38

STAN−5.0 →−3.4▲ 1.6#80

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

STAN

#80

Offense

◀ VT better

#104

#81

Defense

◀ VT better

#95

+0.2 #66

Turnovers

◀ VT better

−0.3 #85

67 plays #65

Pace

STAN faster ▶

69 plays #45

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VT has the ball

Even matchup

	VT off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	30.4 #65	26.3 #86	VT
Yards / play	5.75 #82	5.92 #100	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #79	+0.13 #92	Even
Success rate	41% #92	43% #102	Even

When STAN has the ball

Advantage: VT defense

	STAN off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #86	25.8 #85	Even
Yards / play	5.20 #107	5.74 #92	Even
PPA / play	−0.05 #124	+0.11 #81	VT
Success rate	40% #99	40% #67	VT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

VT scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	5.6 #79	6.0 #100	11.6 #97	6.6 #72	12.2 #10	18.8 #20
STAN allowed	4.3 #59	6.8 #61	11.0 #58	6.8 #88	8.5 #112	15.3 #110

STAN scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	5.3 #85	7.5 #83	12.8 #87	6.0 #79	8.3 #43	14.3 #62
VT allowed	6.2 #91	7.2 #69	13.4 #86	4.8 #50	6.2 #74	11.0 #59

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.