App State @ Marshall: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Marshall · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

App State

2-2 · Power #99

final

Final

Marshall

2-2 · Power #69

▲ winner

Closing spread

MRSH -3.5

✓ MRSH W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 89 pts

Model before kickoff

APP 27–31 MRSH

✓ MRSH (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMRSH -2

CloseMRSH -3.5

Total58.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMRSH -2

1.5 → MRSH

CloseMRSH -3.5

1.5 pts toward Marshall

Total

Open58.5

▼ 2

Close56.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MRSH -2 · closed MRSH -3.5 · moved 1.5 toward MRSHmodel MRSH -5

model MRSH -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 47% (137 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 54% (46 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMRSH -2

CloseMRSH -3.5

Total58.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MRSH as a 3.5-point home favorite against APP, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MRSH won 52–37; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 89 points went over 56.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.6 against an average line of 4.3; 51 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BC vs UVA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	27–24	L	U52.5
Very close	AKR vs BUFF 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	10–13	L	U55.5
Very close	EMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	31–50	L	O57.5
Very close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Very close	LT vs TLSA 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	20–23	L	U56.5
Very close	GAST vs GASO 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	21–38	L	O57
Very close	TULN vs USF 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	45–14	W	U59.5
Close	CMU vs NIU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-6	38–39	L	O56
Close	NIU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	14–22	L	U54.5
Close	NIU vs WMU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	24–0	W	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APP LLW–	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1
MRSH WWWW	4-0	100%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: APP away, as underdog; MRSH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
APP UOU–	1-2	33%	2-2
MRSH UUOU	1-3	25%	2-2

Went over in Q3. Of 242 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APP	7-3 70%	5-4 56%	3-6 33%
MRSH	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

APP 7–5 MRSH APP leads · 12 games since 1977 · APP has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	Marshall 9 @ App State 31	APP -3	APP W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

APP−0.7 →−7.5▼ 6.8#99

MRSH−5.5 →−5.4▲ 0.1#91

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

APP

Longer bar = better

MRSH

#87

Offense

Even

#82

#132

Defense

MRSH better ▶

#82

−1.0 #122

Turnovers

MRSH better ▶

+0.3 #61

72 plays #21

Pace

◀ APP faster

66 plays #70

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When APP has the ball

Even matchup

	APP off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #101	25.8 #83	Even
Yards / play	6.07 #60	5.31 #61	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #84	+0.14 #95	Even
Success rate	40% #104	42% #88	Even

When MRSH has the ball

Advantage: MRSH offense

	MRSH off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #94	35.8 #127	MRSH
Yards / play	5.72 #83	7.03 #132	MRSH
PPA / play	+0.13 #78	+0.39 #136	MRSH
Success rate	43% #73	52% #133	MRSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

APP scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	2.5 #127	10.3 #46	12.8 #87	5.3 #88	5.3 #104	10.5 #109
MRSH allowed	4.3 #59	6.0 #46	10.3 #55	11.3 #132	4.3 #44	15.5 #112

MRSH scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	5.3 #85	8.5 #65	13.8 #77	4.3 #103	7.0 #59	11.3 #98
APP allowed	16.3 #134	10.5 #118	26.8 #133	6.5 #87	2.5 #12	9.0 #35

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.