South Alabama @ Arkansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Arkansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

South Alabama

2-3 · Power #66

final

Final

Arkansas State

2-2 · Power #113

▲ winner

Closing spread

USA -2.5

✓ ARST W

Total

62.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

USA 33–29 ARST

✗ USA (60%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -4.5

CloseUSA -2.5

Total62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSA -4.5

2 → ARST

CloseUSA -2.5

2 pts toward Arkansas State

Total

Open62.5

no move

Close62.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USA -4.5 · closed USA -2.5 · moved 2 toward ARSTmodel USA -7.5

model USA -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 52%, covered 44% (87 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 45% (49 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -4.5

CloseUSA -2.5

Total62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USA as a 2.5-point road favorite at ARST, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ARST won 18–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 62.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.5 against an average line of 3.9; 63.5 points a game (usually 53). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UNLV @ USU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-3	34–24	W	U61.5
Close	TXST @ ARST 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-3.25	31–77	L	O59.5
Close	COLO @ ASU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	27–24	P	U58.5
Close	FAU @ UNT 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation	-3	28–45	L	O67.5
Close	UTSA @ LT 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-5.5	45–16	W	O59.5
Close	UCF @ MEM 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	35–28	W	O60.5
Close	TOL @ BALL 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	22–12	W	U56.5
Close	LIB @ BUFF 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.75	55–27	W	O54
Close	WSU @ ARIZ 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-4	31–20	W	U63
Close	UL @ ARST 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-7	17–37	L	U59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA LLW–L	1-3	25%	0-2	1-2
ARST –L–L	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: USA away, as favorite; ARST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA OUO–U	2-2	50%	2-3
ARST –U–O	1-1	50%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 44 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 46% of games with totals 58.5–66.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USA	5-5 50%	3-6 33%	4-5 44%
ARST	5-5 50%	4-4 50%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USA 1–0 ARST USA leads · 1 game since 2023 · USA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Arkansas State 14 @ South Alabama 21	USA -14	ARST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USA+0.8 →−0.2▼ 1.0#67

ARST−7.6 →−9.5▼ 1.9#104

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

USA

Longer bar = better

ARST

#14

Offense

◀ USA better

#117

#109

Defense

◀ USA better

#124

+1.4 #11

Turnovers

◀ USA better

−0.5 #98

66 plays #72

Pace

ARST faster ▶

73 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	40.6 #19	33.8 #121	USA
Yards / play	7.15 #20	6.69 #128	USA
PPA / play	+0.44 #8	+0.24 #120	USA
Success rate	53% #10	49% #126	USA

When ARST has the ball

Even matchup

	ARST off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #108	29.0 #100	Even
Yards / play	4.50 #129	6.66 #127	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #105	+0.18 #103	Even
Success rate	34% #126	44% #107	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

USA scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	8.2 #36	14.2 #5	22.4 #16	12.4 #5	5.8 #91	18.2 #24
ARST allowed	6.0 #88	11.3 #124	17.3 #110	6.0 #76	10.5 #123	16.5 #117

ARST scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	3.3 #116	2.5 #132	5.8 #133	7.0 #61	9.0 #32	16.0 #37
USA allowed	8.2 #116	8.4 #87	16.6 #105	7.0 #92	5.4 #59	12.4 #81

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.