James Madison @ UL Monroe: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at UL Monroe · Conference game

Weather at kickoff85°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

James Madison

4-0 · Power #59

final

Final

UL Monroe

3-1 · Power #115

▲ winner

Closing spread

JMU -16.5

✓ ULM W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

JMU 32–15 ULM

✗ JMU (88%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -15

CloseJMU -16.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJMU -15

1.5 → JMU

CloseJMU -16.5

1.5 pts toward James Madison

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JMU -15 · closed JMU -16.5 · moved 1.5 toward JMUmodel JMU -18

model JMU -18

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 54% (48 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -15

CloseJMU -16.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as a 16.5-point road favorite at ULM, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ULM won 21–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 47.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.5 against an average line of 15.2; 48.9 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	AFA @ CSU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-14.5	30–13	W	U47.5
Close	BAY @ KU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-17	45–7	W	O48.5
Close	ISU @ HOU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-16.5	20–0	W	U43
Close	CCU @ USA 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-15	27–21	L	U55
Close	BOIS @ WYO 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	20–17	L	U44.5
Close	HOU @ USF 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest	-13.5	54–42	L	O53
Close	MD @ NU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-14	27–33	L	O48.5
Close	RUTG @ TEM 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-18	16–14	L	U42.75
Close	UL @ RICE 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-11.5	21–33	L	O52
Close	UCLA @ STAN 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-17	42–7	W	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JMU –LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1
ULM WWLW	3-1	75%	2-0	2-1

Venue/role: JMU away, as favorite; ULM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JMU –UOO	2-1	67%	4-0
ULM UUOU	1-3	25%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 52% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JMU	8-2 80%	5-4 56%	7-2 78%
ULM	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JMU+2.2 →+6.9▲ 4.7#34

ULM−17.3 →−12.2▲ 5.1#113

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

JMU

Longer bar = better

ULM

#28

Offense

◀ JMU better

#114

#24

Defense

◀ JMU better

#74

+2.5 #1

Turnovers

◀ JMU better

+0.8 #36

63 plays #96

Pace

◀ JMU faster

55 plays #134

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	44.0 #12	20.0 #43	JMU
Yards / play	7.17 #19	5.05 #49	JMU
PPA / play	+0.24 #34	+0.12 #88	JMU
Success rate	45% #47	46% #115	JMU

When ULM has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	ULM off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	19.5 #117	17.5 #33	JMU
Yards / play	4.52 #128	5.01 #47	JMU
PPA / play	+0.07 #97	−0.19 #3	JMU
Success rate	37% #115	33% #11	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

JMU scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	12.5 #8	10.3 #48	22.8 #14	11.0 #8	10.3 #14	21.3 #9
ULM allowed	6.8 #96	5.0 #34	11.8 #65	4.0 #37	4.3 #41	8.3 #31

ULM scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	3.3 #116	5.0 #114	8.3 #119	4.8 #98	6.5 #76	11.3 #99
JMU allowed	5.3 #76	4.3 #25	9.5 #40	5.0 #58	3.0 #18	8.0 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.