Sam Houston @ UTEP: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Thu, Oct 3, 2024, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at UTEP · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Sam Houston

4-1 · Power #93

▲ winner

Final

UTEP

0-4 · Power #128

final

Closing spread

SHSU -9.5

✓ SHSU W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

SHSU 28–19 UTEP

✓ SHSU (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSHSU -11

CloseSHSU -9.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSHSU -11

1.5 → UTEP

CloseSHSU -9.5

1.5 pts toward UTEP

Total

Open49.5

no move

Close49.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SHSU -11 · closed SHSU -9.5 · moved 1.5 toward UTEPmodel SHSU -5.5

model SHSU -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 7.5–11.5 since 2023: won 80%, covered 61% (64 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (38 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSHSU -11

CloseSHSU -9.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SHSU as a 9.5-point road favorite at UTEP, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: SHSU won 41–21; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.1 against an average line of 8.4; 47.3 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WYO @ HAW 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & situation	-11.5	27–20	L	U50.75
Very close	USA @ ULM 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & situation	-11	55–7	W	O51
Close	WKU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	21–13	L	U54
Close	WYO @ NEV 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-11	42–6	W	O41.75
Close	SC @ VAN 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-6.5	38–27	W	O49
Close	FAU @ ODU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & total	-6.5	16–30	L	U48
Close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5
Close	USU @ CONN 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & season form	-4.5	34–33	L	O51
Close	M-OH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings	-7	13–17	L	U45
Close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	37–3	W	U48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SHSU WL–WW	3-1	75%	1-1	1-0
UTEP –LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: SHSU away, as favorite; UTEP home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SHSU UO–UO	2-2	50%	4-1
UTEP –UUU	0-3	0%	0-4

Went over in Q3. Of 244 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SHSU	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	5-4 56%
UTEP	2-8 20%	6-3 67%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SHSU 1–4 UTEP UTEP leads · 5 games since 1990 · UTEP has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2023	UTEP 37 @ Sam Houston 34	SHSU -4	UTEP W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SHSU−10.8 →−6.5▲ 4.3#94

UTEP−11.5 →−16.2▼ 4.7#125

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

SHSU

Longer bar = better

UTEP

#79

Offense

◀ SHSU better

#122

#84

Defense

◀ SHSU better

#104

+0.2 #66

Turnovers

◀ SHSU better

−0.5 #95

71 plays #32

Pace

◀ SHSU faster

65 plays #85

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SHSU has the ball

Advantage: SHSU offense

	SHSU off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #66	30.5 #104	SHSU
Yards / play	5.34 #100	6.04 #101	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #73	+0.18 #105	SHSU
Success rate	42% #77	44% #105	SHSU

When UTEP has the ball

Advantage: SHSU defense

	UTEP off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	14.5 #132	24.4 #75	SHSU
Yards / play	4.99 #116	5.28 #58	SHSU
PPA / play	−0.01 #120	+0.15 #99	SHSU
Success rate	36% #120	43% #103	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SHSU scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	7.6 #44	10.4 #43	18.0 #46	6.0 #76	6.0 #82	12.0 #84
UTEP allowed	6.8 #97	9.3 #103	16.0 #103	8.0 #112	5.8 #67	13.8 #93

UTEP scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	6.0 #71	1.5 #134	7.5 #123	3.5 #115	3.5 #121	7.0 #125
SHSU allowed	7.8 #116	6.0 #45	13.8 #91	7.6 #105	3.0 #22	10.6 #50

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.