UTEP @ Western Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Thu, Oct 10, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Western Kentucky · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

UTEP

0-5 · Power #128

final

Final

Western Kentucky

3-2 · Power #103

▲ winner

Closing spread

WKU -18.5

✓ WKU W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

UTEP 17–35 WKU

✓ WKU (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -20.5

CloseWKU -18.5

Total56.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWKU -20.5

2 → UTEP

CloseWKU -18.5

2 pts toward UTEP

Total

Open56.5

▼ 2

Close54.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WKU -20.5 · closed WKU -18.5 · moved 2 toward UTEPmodel WKU -16.5

model WKU -16.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 17.5–19.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 52% (48 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 46% (50 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -20.5

CloseWKU -18.5

Total56.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WKU as an 18.5-point home favorite against UTEP, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: WKU won 44–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 54.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.9 against an average line of 17.5; 57.9 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH vs AKR 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & total	-20	34–21	L	O51
Very close	USU vs NEV 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & season form	-14.5	41–24	W	O54.25
Very close	SC vs VAN 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-18.75	21–20	L	U50
Very close	APP vs USM 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-16	48–38	L	O55.5
Very close	ARST vs MASS 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & spread	-17.25	35–33	L	O49.5
Very close	ECU vs TEM 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-15.5	45–3	W	U52.25
Close	EMU vs MASS 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-20	20–13	L	U53.5
Close	LT vs USM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-15.5	19–35	L	O47.5
Close	NEV vs UNLV 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-19	51–20	W	O58.25
Close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-18.5	55–3	W	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTEP –LWLL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-2
WKU LWWWW	4-1	80%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: UTEP away, as underdog; WKU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTEP –UUUO	1-3	25%	0-5
WKU OUOUU	2-3	40%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 247 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTEP	1-9 10%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%
WKU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UTEP 0–1 WKU WKU leads · 1 game since 2023 · WKU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	Western Kentucky 21 @ UTEP 13	WKU -9.5	UTEP W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTEP−11.5 →−17.8▼ 6.3#129

WKU−5.2 →−5.7▼ 0.5#92

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

UTEP

Longer bar = better

WKU

#122

Offense

WKU better ▶

#89

#111

Defense

WKU better ▶

#95

−1.0 #119

Turnovers

WKU better ▶

0.0 #73

64 plays #90

Pace

WKU faster ▶

68 plays #52

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTEP has the ball

Advantage: WKU defense

	UTEP off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	15.8 #128	25.2 #79	WKU
Yards / play	5.02 #113	6.18 #109	Even
PPA / play	−0.03 #123	+0.15 #97	WKU
Success rate	36% #123	43% #96	WKU

When WKU has the ball

Advantage: WKU offense

	WKU off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	25.2 #96	32.6 #119	WKU
Yards / play	5.60 #87	6.10 #105	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #92	+0.21 #111	Even
Success rate	42% #82	45% #109	WKU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UTEP scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	4.8 #90	2.6 #131	7.4 #126	4.2 #106	4.2 #115	8.4 #122
WKU allowed	4.2 #49	8.4 #88	12.6 #73	7.0 #92	5.6 #58	12.6 #86

WKU scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	6.2 #70	6.2 #101	12.4 #92	5.8 #77	7.0 #59	12.8 #75
UTEP allowed	6.8 #98	9.4 #99	16.2 #104	10.6 #131	5.2 #55	15.8 #110

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.