Western Kentucky @ Boston College: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Boston College

Weather at kickoff67°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Western Kentucky

3-1 · Power #103

final

Final

Boston College

3-1 · Power #58

▲ winner

Closing spread

BC -7.5

✓ WKU W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

WKU 23–32 BC

✓ BC (74%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBC -11

CloseBC -7.5

Total56.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBC -11

3.5 → WKU

CloseBC -7.5

3.5 pts toward Western Kentucky

Total

Open56.5

▼ 8

Close48.5

Down 8 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BC -11 · closed BC -7.5 · moved 3.5 toward WKUmodel BC -15

model BC -15

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 54% (72 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBC -11

CloseBC -7.5

Total56.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BC as a 7.5-point home favorite against WKU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: BC won 21–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 48.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2 against an average line of 6.6; 39.4 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	JMU vs MRSH 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-9.5	12–26	L	U48.5
Close	M-OH vs BGSU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	27–0	W	U43
Close	DUKE vs WAKE 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest	-6.5	24–21	L	O41
Loose	CCU vs USM 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & total	-5	26–23	L	O48
Loose	ARMY vs M-OH 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	23–10	W	U48.75
Loose	PITT vs DUKE 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-6.5	28–26	L	O49
Loose	UK vs SC 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-4.5	14–24	L	U44.5
Loose	WSU vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	6–44	L	U56.5
Loose	M-OH vs BUFF 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-7.5	23–10	W	U37
Loose	DUKE vs NCSU 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & season form	-3.5	24–3	W	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WKU LWWW	3-1	75%	1-1	1-1
BC WWWL	3-1	75%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: WKU away, as underdog; BC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU OUOU	2-2	50%	3-1
BC UOUU	1-3	25%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
BC	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WKU−5.2 →−7.0▼ 1.8#96

BC−1.3 →+3.8▲ 5.1#52

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

WKU

Longer bar = better

#81

Offense

BC better ▶

#58

#108

Defense

BC better ▶

#38

+0.3 #70

Turnovers

BC better ▶

+0.8 #39

66 plays #73

Pace

◀ WKU faster

60 plays #119

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WKU has the ball

Advantage: BC defense

	WKU off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #91	14.8 #26	BC
Yards / play	5.92 #75	4.83 #44	BC
PPA / play	+0.12 #82	+0.03 #48	BC
Success rate	43% #76	36% #35	BC

When BC has the ball

Advantage: BC offense

	BC off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #55	26.3 #86	BC
Yards / play	6.34 #49	6.71 #128	BC
PPA / play	+0.27 #31	+0.24 #115	BC
Success rate	41% #96	43% #103	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WKU scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	6.0 #71	5.3 #108	11.3 #99	6.5 #76	8.8 #37	15.3 #54
BC allowed	1.5 #12	7.5 #78	9.0 #45	4.3 #45	1.5 #7	5.8 #21

BC scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	5.3 #79	13.8 #17	19.0 #41	7.8 #52	5.3 #94	13.0 #69
WKU allowed	5.3 #82	8.8 #100	14.0 #93	8.8 #118	3.5 #35	12.3 #76

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.