Louisiana Tech @ Florida International: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Florida International · Conference game

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Louisiana Tech

1-2 · Power #112

final

Final

Florida International

1-3 · Power #121

▲ winner

Closing spread

LT -2

✓ FIU W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

LT 24–22 FIU

✗ LT (54%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLT -2

CloseLT -2

Total51.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLT -2

no move

CloseLT -2

No change since the open

Total

Open51.5

▼ 2

Close49.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LT -2 · unchangedmodel FIU -1

model FIU -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1–3 since 2023: won 48%, covered 42% (73 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLT -2

CloseLT -2

Total51.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LT as a 2-point road favorite at FIU, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: FIU won 17–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 49.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 12.8 against an average line of 2.7; 47.4 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USM @ ULM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	20–10	W	U50
Very close	NIU @ WMU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-0.5	24–21	W	U49
Very close	BGSU @ WMU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	34–10	W	U51.5
Very close	CMU @ BUFF 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	13–37	L	U52
Very close	ODU @ FIU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	47–24	W	O50
Very close	NIU @ AKR 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	55–14	W	O42.5
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	24–27	L	U53.75
Very close	LT @ UTEP 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation	-1	24–10	W	U50.5
Very close	USM @ TXST 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	20–14	W	U43
Very close	KENT @ BGSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.75	40–6	W	U55.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LT –WL	1-1	50%	1-0	0-1
FIU WWLL	2-2	50%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: LT away, as favorite; FIU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LT –OU	1-1	50%	1-2
FIU UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LT	2-8 20%	3-6 33%	5-3 63%
FIU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LT 1–0 FIU LT leads · 1 game since 2023 · LT has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Aug 26 2023	Florida International 17 @ Louisiana Tech 22	LT -10	FIU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LT−10.2 →−12.5▼ 2.3#116

FIU−14.7 →−14.3▲ 0.4#122

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

FIU

#123

Offense

FIU better ▶

#96

#36

Defense

◀ LT better

#99

−2.7 #137

Turnovers

FIU better ▶

−0.3 #86

66 plays #68

Pace

◀ LT faster

57 plays #130

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LT has the ball

Advantage: FIU defense

	LT off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #112	32.5 #115	Even
Yards / play	4.99 #113	5.57 #81	FIU
PPA / play	−0.16 #135	+0.16 #94	FIU
Success rate	33% #130	43% #104	FIU

When FIU has the ball

Advantage: LT defense

	FIU off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #69	23.3 #70	Even
Yards / play	5.85 #79	4.52 #30	LT
PPA / play	−0.04 #125	0.00 #36	LT
Success rate	39% #109	31% #8	LT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

LT scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	3.0 #123	10.0 #51	13.0 #88	1.0 #131	7.7 #51	8.7 #117
FIU allowed	7.0 #96	11.5 #121	18.5 #118	9.8 #126	4.3 #47	14.0 #98

FIU scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	7.0 #55	10.5 #41	17.5 #48	5.5 #86	7.3 #56	12.8 #72
LT allowed	5.7 #83	3.0 #17	8.7 #36	7.0 #95	6.7 #81	13.7 #92

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.