Kentucky @ Ole Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Ole Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F8 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Kentucky

2-2 · Power #50

▲ winner

Final

Ole Miss

4-0 · Power #3

final

Closing spread

MISS -15.5

✓ UK W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

UK 17–33 MISS

✗ MISS (87%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -17.5

CloseMISS -15.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMISS -17.5

2 → UK

CloseMISS -15.5

2 pts toward Kentucky

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MISS -17.5 · closed MISS -15.5 · moved 2 toward UKmodel MISS -18.5

model MISS -18.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 14.5–16.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 50% (50 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 43% (42 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -17.5

CloseMISS -15.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 15.5-point home favorite against UK, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UK won 20–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 13.1 against an average line of 15.8; 53.3 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OU vs ISU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-20	50–20	W	O48.5
Close	UGA vs ARK 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	37–0	W	U48.5
Close	OU vs KSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-13.5	34–41	L	O53
Close	MISS vs GT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-17	48–23	W	O61.5
Loose	KSU vs TROY 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & total	-15	42–13	W	O50
Loose	SYR vs ARMY 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & rest	-13	29–16	P	U50.5
Loose	MIZ vs VAN 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-18	30–27	L	O52
Loose	MINN vs PUR 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-9	10–20	L	U53
Loose	OSU vs PSU 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-18.5	33–24	L	U60.5
Loose	MICH vs ILL 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-17	19–17	L	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UK WLWW	3-1	75%	—	1-0
MISS WWWW	4-0	100%	3-0	4-0

Venue/role: UK away, as underdog; MISS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UK UUUO	1-3	25%	2-2
MISS OUUU	1-3	25%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 56% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UK	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
MISS	9-1 90%	6-2-2 75%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UK+5.8 →+8.1▲ 2.3#26

MISS+12.8 →+22.0▲ 9.2#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

MISS

#91

Offense

MISS better ▶

#24

Defense

MISS better ▶

+0.3 #67

Turnovers

MISS better ▶

+1.0 #25

62 plays #110

Pace

MISS faster ▶

76 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UK has the ball

Advantage: MISS defense

	UK off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #108	5.5 #1	MISS
Yards / play	5.17 #108	3.50 #4	MISS
PPA / play	+0.08 #100	−0.13 #7	MISS
Success rate	46% #47	29% #1	MISS

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	55.0 #1	12.5 #15	Even
Yards / play	8.85 #1	4.67 #33	MISS
PPA / play	+0.60 #2	−0.08 #20	Even
Success rate	63% #1	35% #29	MISS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UK scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	2.0 #126	7.7 #83	9.7 #109	4.3 #104	5.7 #89	10.0 #104
MISS allowed	0.8 #5	3.3 #21	4.0 #8	0.8 #4	0.8 #3	1.5 #2

MISS scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	19.5 #2	13.0 #22	32.5 #3	14.0 #3	8.5 #43	22.5 #8
UK allowed	2.3 #25	2.0 #12	4.3 #9	5.7 #70	6.7 #79	12.3 #77

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.