Vanderbilt @ Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 7:55 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Kentucky · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Vanderbilt

3-2 · Power #53

▲ winner

Final

Kentucky

3-2 · Power #50

final

Closing spread

UK -12.5

✓ VAN W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

VAN 18–30 UK

✗ UK (81%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUK -13.5

CloseUK -12.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUK -13.5

1 → VAN

CloseUK -12.5

1 pt toward Vanderbilt

Total

Open45.5

▼ 2

Close43.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UK -13.5 · closed UK -12.5 · moved 1 toward VANmodel UK -12.5 matches the line

model UK -12.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 47% (50 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (54 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUK -13.5

CloseUK -12.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UK as a 12.5-point home favorite against VAN, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: VAN won 20–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 43.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 20.9 against an average line of 12.3; 43.3 points a game (usually 55). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WIS vs RUTG 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13	24–13	L	U44
Close	NCST vs SYR 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-11.5	41–17	W	O49.5
Close	ORST vs CAL 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-11.5	38–10	W	O47
Close	UTAH vs CAL 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-9.5	34–14	W	O43
Close	ISU vs BAY 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-13	43–21	W	O45
Close	MINN vs RUTG 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-14	31–0	W	U40.5
Close	IOWA vs PUR 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-11	7–24	L	U42.5
Close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Close	PSU vs RUTG 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-14	28–0	W	U45
Close	LSU vs UAB 2022 · Week 12 · close	-15.25	41–10	W	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VAN WWLWW	4-1	80%	1-1	3-0
UK WLWWW	4-1	80%	3-1	2-1

Venue/role: VAN away, as underdog; UK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VAN OOOOO	5-0	100%	3-2
UK UUUOU	1-4	20%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 55% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VAN	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
UK	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

VAN 0–1 UK UK leads · 1 game since 2023 · UK has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2023	Kentucky 45 @ Vanderbilt 28	UK -13	UK W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VAN−6.1 →+1.5▲ 7.6#61

UK+5.8 →+9.8▲ 4.0#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

VAN

Longer bar = better

#41

Offense

◀ VAN better

#98

#83

Defense

UK better ▶

#27

+1.0 #13

Turnovers

◀ VAN better

+0.4 #49

64 plays #95

Pace

Even

64 plays #91

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VAN has the ball

Even matchup

	VAN off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	37.6 #22	13.4 #11	Even
Yards / play	5.77 #78	5.05 #42	UK
PPA / play	+0.27 #25	0.00 #26	Even
Success rate	46% #37	37% #30	Even

When UK has the ball

Even matchup

	UK off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #110	25.6 #84	VAN
Yards / play	5.01 #116	5.67 #87	VAN
PPA / play	+0.09 #90	+0.14 #94	Even
Success rate	43% #74	40% #68	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

VAN scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	6.6 #64	11.4 #28	18.0 #41	4.8 #97	12.0 #6	16.8 #30
UK allowed	3.5 #38	1.5 #5	5.0 #6	6.8 #90	5.0 #42	11.8 #62

UK scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	2.3 #130	7.5 #85	9.8 #115	4.0 #108	6.0 #87	10.0 #112
VAN allowed	3.4 #36	4.4 #23	7.8 #19	8.8 #120	7.0 #85	15.8 #112

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.