Ball State @ Vanderbilt: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Vanderbilt

Weather at kickoff61°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Ball State

2-4 · Power #126

final

Final

Vanderbilt

4-2 · Power #53

▲ winner

Closing spread

VAN -27.5

✓ BALL W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

BALL 15–43 VAN

✓ VAN (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVAN -26.5

CloseVAN -27.5

Total58.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenVAN -26.5

1 → VAN

CloseVAN -27.5

1 pt toward Vanderbilt

Total

Open58.5

▼ 2

Close56.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened VAN -26.5 · closed VAN -27.5 · moved 1 toward VANmodel VAN -28.5

model VAN -28.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 25.5–29.5 since 2023: won 97%, covered 53% (60 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (66 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVAN -26.5

CloseVAN -27.5

Total58.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VAN as a 27.5-point home favorite against BALL, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: VAN won 24–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 56.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 54%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 27.7 against an average line of 26.9; 55.1 points a game (usually 55.9). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs AKR 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-28.5	49–14	W	O57.5
Very close	APP vs ULM 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-27	59–28	W	O57.5
Very close	FRES vs NEV 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-24.5	27–9	L	U51.5
Close	MEM vs MTSU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-27	24–7	L	U61.5
Close	UCF vs CONN 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-30	49–17	W	O55.75
Close	APP vs GASO 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-24.5	27–3	L	U55
Close	FRES vs KENT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-27.5	53–10	W	O47.5
Close	WASH vs COLO 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-30.5	54–7	W	O60.5
Close	SMU vs CLT 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-23.5	34–16	L	U53.5
Close	BYU vs USU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-26	38–26	L	O60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL –WLWL	3-2	60%	1-2	2-1
VAN WLWWW	5-1	83%	3-0	1-1

Venue/role: BALL away, as underdog; VAN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL –OOOO	5-0	100%	2-4
VAN OOOOU	5-1	83%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALL	4-6 40%	7-2 78%	6-3 67%
VAN	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BALL−11.2 →−20.2▼ 9.0#131

VAN−6.1 →+3.0▲ 9.1#59

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

BALL

Longer bar = better

VAN

#100

Offense

VAN better ▶

#45

#132

Defense

VAN better ▶

#81

−0.5 #104

Turnovers

VAN better ▶

+1.0 #16

70 plays #36

Pace

◀ BALL faster

62 plays #109

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BALL has the ball

Even matchup

	BALL off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #80	23.5 #67	Even
Yards / play	4.87 #124	5.67 #82	VAN
PPA / play	+0.03 #112	+0.14 #87	VAN
Success rate	42% #84	42% #87	Even

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: VAN offense

	VAN off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	34.7 #28	46.0 #136	VAN
Yards / play	5.69 #84	8.00 #136	VAN
PPA / play	+0.24 #35	+0.32 #134	VAN
Success rate	47% #33	47% #123	VAN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BALL scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	6.8 #54	5.2 #118	12.0 #96	5.8 #74	9.2 #27	15.0 #44
VAN allowed	2.8 #16	4.8 #30	7.7 #18	7.3 #104	6.8 #79	14.2 #103

VAN scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	6.7 #57	10.7 #34	17.3 #38	4.5 #100	10.5 #13	15.0 #44
BALL allowed	10.0 #131	9.7 #101	19.7 #127	9.0 #125	17.3 #134	26.3 #134

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.