Toledo @ Northern Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Northern Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F10 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Toledo

4-2 · Power #88

▲ winner

Final

Northern Illinois

4-2 · Power #74

final

Closing spread

NIU -3.5

✓ TOL W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 19 pts

Model before kickoff

TOL 21–25 NIU

✗ NIU (61%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNIU -1.5

CloseNIU -3.5

Total45.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNIU -1.5

2 → NIU

CloseNIU -3.5

2 pts toward Northern Illinois

Total

Open45.5

▼ 3

Close42.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NIU -1.5 · closed NIU -3.5 · moved 2 toward NIUmodel NIU -6

model NIU -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 49% (156 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 54% (26 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNIU -1.5

CloseNIU -3.5

Total45.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NIU as a 3.5-point home favorite against TOL, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 13–6 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 19 points stayed under 42.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.9 against an average line of 4.1; 44.3 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TROY vs USA 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-6.5	28–10	W	U43.5
Very close	SDSU vs NEV 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	23–21	L	U45
Very close	TROY vs USA 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	31–24	W	O47.5
Very close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	31–23	W	O49.5
Very close	USA vs TROY 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	6–10	L	U47
Very close	PUR vs MINN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Very close	WVU vs OKST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	34–48	L	O48.5
Very close	OHIO vs M-OH 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	16–30	L	O39
Very close	BGSU vs NIU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	7–17	L	U46.5
Close	MRSH vs GAST 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	28–23	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL LWLWL	3-3	50%	1-2	1-0
NIU WLWWW	5-1	83%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: TOL away, as underdog; NIU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL OOUOO	5-1	83%	4-2
NIU UOUOU	3-3	50%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 54% of games with totals 38.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
NIU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TOL 1–0 NIU TOL leads · 1 game since 2023 · TOL has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	Northern Illinois 33 @ Toledo 35	TOL -13.5	NIU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TOL−0.4 →−3.8▼ 3.4#83

NIU−7.8 →−1.5▲ 6.3#73

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

TOL

Longer bar = better

NIU

#77

Offense

Even

#79

#38

Defense

NIU better ▶

#15

+0.2 #66

Turnovers

◀ TOL better

−0.5 #105

69 plays #49

Pace

NIU faster ▶

72 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	TOL off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #44	17.2 #20	NIU
Yards / play	5.58 #90	4.48 #12	NIU
PPA / play	+0.12 #79	−0.01 #20	NIU
Success rate	41% #94	35% #6	NIU

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	NIU off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #84	21.0 #46	TOL
Yards / play	5.61 #88	5.01 #32	TOL
PPA / play	+0.15 #68	+0.05 #46	TOL
Success rate	43% #76	37% #27	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TOL scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	8.2 #29	9.7 #46	17.8 #35	7.5 #42	7.0 #69	14.5 #55
NIU allowed	5.2 #72	3.2 #7	8.3 #25	4.3 #39	4.0 #19	8.3 #21

NIU scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	6.7 #57	8.0 #77	14.7 #64	3.2 #121	8.5 #39	11.7 #96
TOL allowed	2.8 #16	4.8 #26	7.7 #17	6.0 #79	7.3 #93	13.3 #91

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.