Western Michigan @ Buffalo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Buffalo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Western Michigan

3-3 · Power #107

▲ winner

Final

Buffalo

4-2 · Power #105

final

Closing spread

WMU -1.5

✓ WMU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 89 pts

Model before kickoff

WMU 26–25 BUFF

✓ WMU (53%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUFF -0.5

CloseWMU -1.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUFF -0.5

2 → WMU

CloseWMU -1.5

2 pts toward Western Michigan

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUFF -0.5 · closed WMU -1.5 · moved 2 toward WMUmodel BUFF -1

model BUFF -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 52%, covered 48% (65 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (68 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUFF -0.5

CloseWMU -1.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WMU as a 1.5-point road favorite at BUFF, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: WMU won 48–41; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 89 points went over 48.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.4 against an average line of 2.5; 49.8 points a game (usually 53.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LT @ UTEP 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1	24–10	W	U50.5
Very close	OHIO @ M-OH 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	37–21	W	O52
Very close	EMU @ BGSU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	55–24	W	O49.5
Very close	NIU @ WMU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-0.5	24–21	W	U49
Very close	KENT @ BGSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.75	40–6	W	U55.75
Very close	CMU @ M-OH 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.75	17–28	L	U56
Very close	HAW @ UNLV 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	13–27	L	U55.5
Very close	NMSU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	28–7	W	U49
Very close	USM @ TXST 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	20–14	W	U43
Very close	USF @ TEM 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	28–54	L	O49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WMU LLLLW	2-4	33%	1-3	1-2
BUFF LWWLW	4-2	67%	3-0	2-2

Venue/role: WMU away, as favorite; BUFF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WMU OOUOO	4-2	67%	3-3
BUFF UUOOO	3-3	50%	4-2

Went over in Q3. Of 269 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WMU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
BUFF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WMU−10.3 →−11.1▼ 0.8#115

BUFF−12.2 →−12.5▼ 0.3#117

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

WMU

Longer bar = better

BUFF

#57

Offense

◀ WMU better

#125

#123

Defense

BUFF better ▶

#48

+0.7 #28

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #41

61 plays #122

Pace

Even

62 plays #111

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WMU has the ball

Even matchup

	WMU off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #70	22.7 #62	Even
Yards / play	6.07 #60	4.98 #30	BUFF
PPA / play	+0.19 #50	+0.07 #57	Even
Success rate	45% #49	39% #43	Even

When BUFF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUFF off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #120	34.7 #123	Even
Yards / play	4.38 #135	6.45 #121	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #108	+0.24 #121	Even
Success rate	32% #135	50% #128	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WMU scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	6.3 #65	8.7 #62	15.0 #59	7.5 #42	6.2 #84	13.7 #67
BUFF allowed	3.3 #30	7.3 #71	10.7 #53	5.7 #71	6.3 #72	12.0 #66

BUFF scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	4.5 #94	2.0 #134	6.5 #132	7.5 #42	5.5 #99	13.0 #72
WMU allowed	8.7 #126	10.3 #114	19.0 #122	8.0 #115	7.7 #100	15.7 #118

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.