Kent State @ Western Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Western Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Kent State

0-7 · Power #134

final

Final

Western Michigan

4-3 · Power #107

▲ winner

Closing spread

WMU -19.5

✓ WMU W

Total

61.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

KENT 21–41 WMU

✓ WMU (92%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWMU -18

CloseWMU -19.5

Total59.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWMU -18

1.5 → WMU

CloseWMU -19.5

1.5 pts toward Western Michigan

Total

Open59.5

▲ 2

Close61.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WMU -18 · closed WMU -19.5 · moved 1.5 toward WMUmodel WMU -20

model WMU -20

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 18.5–20.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 50% (52 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (71 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWMU -18

CloseWMU -19.5

Total59.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WMU as a 19.5-point home favorite against KENT, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: WMU won 52–21; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 61.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 46%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 17 against an average line of 18.7; 63.6 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JXST vs NMSU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-21	54–13	W	O58.5
Close	GAST vs CLT 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-19.5	41–42	L	O63.75
Close	HAW vs NMSU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-18.5	48–34	L	O62.75
Close	UNM vs NMSU 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & rest	-19.5	34–25	L	O55.5
Close	UNT vs FIU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-21.5	52–14	W	O63.25
Close	GASO vs ULM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	38–28	L	O60.5
Close	WKU vs UTEP 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation	-19	44–17	W	O55.5
Close	ARIZ vs COLO 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-17.75	43–20	W	O58
Close	TXST vs ULM 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-18.5	21–20	L	U64.5
Close	GAST vs ARST 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-15.5	28–20	L	U66

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENT L–LWW	2-4	33%	1-2	2-3
WMU LLLWW	3-4	43%	1-1	2-2

Venue/role: KENT away, as underdog; WMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENT O–OOU	4-2	67%	0-7
WMU OUOOO	5-2	71%	4-3

Went over in Q4. Of 130 earlier overs in games with totals 57.5–65.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENT	0-10 0%	3-6 33%	6-3 67%
WMU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KENT−20.0 →−26.6▼ 6.6#134

WMU−10.3 →−10.6▼ 0.3#110

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

KENT

Longer bar = better

WMU

#133

Offense

WMU better ▶

#39

#134

Defense

Even

#126

−1.0 #120

Turnovers

WMU better ▶

+0.6 #31

58 plays #132

Pace

WMU faster ▶

62 plays #114

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KENT has the ball

Even matchup

	KENT off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	16.4 #132	35.6 #123	Even
Yards / play	4.35 #134	6.68 #128	Even
PPA / play	−0.09 #132	+0.25 #124	Even
Success rate	33% #135	50% #129	Even

When WMU has the ball

Advantage: WMU offense

	WMU off	KENT def	Edge
Points / game	31.4 #46	45.9 #137	WMU
Yards / play	6.20 #46	6.94 #134	WMU
PPA / play	+0.22 #35	+0.29 #130	WMU
Success rate	47% #29	51% #134	WMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

KENT scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENT scored	2.4 #126	5.4 #118	7.9 #131	3.4 #116	5.1 #109	8.6 #124
WMU allowed	8.9 #125	9.9 #107	18.7 #120	7.9 #113	9.0 #115	16.9 #124

WMU scoring against the KENT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	6.4 #58	10.4 #33	16.9 #39	7.4 #42	7.1 #66	14.6 #51
KENT allowed	13.6 #134	15.3 #133	28.9 #134	8.3 #117	8.7 #111	17.0 #125

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.