Eastern Michigan @ Akron: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Akron · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F11 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Eastern Michigan

5-2 · Power #120

final

Final

Akron

1-6 · Power #124

▲ winner

Closing spread

EMU -2.5

✓ AKR W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

EMU 25–22 AKR

✗ EMU (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenEMU -3.5

CloseEMU -2.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenEMU -3.5

1 → AKR

CloseEMU -2.5

1 pt toward Akron

Total

Open51.5

▼ 1

Close50.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened EMU -3.5 · closed EMU -2.5 · moved 1 toward AKRmodel EMU -4.5

model EMU -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 45% (112 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 52% (29 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenEMU -3.5

CloseEMU -2.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like EMU as a 2.5-point road favorite at AKR, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: AKR won 25–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 50.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.5 against an average line of 4; 49.5 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FAU @ UTEP 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	21–24	L	U50.75
Very close	LT @ ODU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	20–23	L	U52.25
Very close	USU @ CONN 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & season form	-4.5	34–33	L	O51
Very close	USM @ ULM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	20–10	W	U50
Very close	ECU @ NAVY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	38–35	L	O46.5
Very close	LT @ RICE 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-4	31–35	L	O52.5
Close	CSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-5.5	24–27	L	U53.75
Close	NAVY @ CLT 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	14–0	W	U44.5
Close	GAST @ GASO 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-6	21–14	W	U55
Close	ODU @ FIU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-3	47–24	W	O50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EMU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-0	3-0
AKR LLLWL	2-5	29%	1-1	2-4

Venue/role: EMU away, as favorite; AKR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
EMU OUOOO	4-3	57%	5-2
AKR OOUUO	5-2	71%	1-6

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 55% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EMU	7-3 70%	7-2-1 78%	6-4 60%
AKR	1-9 10%	3-6-1 33%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

EMU 1–0 AKR EMU leads · 1 game since 2023 · EMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 14 2023	Akron 27 @ Eastern Michigan 30	EMU -3	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

EMU−13.3 →−10.5▲ 2.8#108

AKR−13.9 →−17.1▼ 3.2#125

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

EMU

Longer bar = better

AKR

#89

Offense

◀ EMU better

#125

#93

Defense

◀ EMU better

#119

+0.9 #20

Turnovers

◀ EMU better

−0.9 #118

76 plays #4

Pace

◀ EMU faster

61 plays #123

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When EMU has the ball

Advantage: EMU offense

	EMU off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	30.6 #53	37.4 #128	EMU
Yards / play	4.94 #124	6.19 #111	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #108	+0.21 #118	Even
Success rate	43% #71	46% #119	EMU

When AKR has the ball

Advantage: EMU defense

	AKR off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	16.4 #133	26.1 #80	EMU
Yards / play	4.82 #126	6.27 #116	Even
PPA / play	−0.04 #126	+0.07 #54	EMU
Success rate	38% #114	47% #123	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

EMU scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	7.3 #44	7.7 #83	15.0 #60	6.6 #66	8.1 #41	14.7 #48
AKR allowed	7.6 #115	11.3 #126	18.9 #122	7.7 #110	10.9 #128	18.6 #130

AKR scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	4.7 #94	6.4 #105	11.1 #102	2.4 #127	2.9 #133	5.3 #133
EMU allowed	3.0 #21	9.9 #107	12.9 #76	5.1 #57	7.7 #97	12.9 #82

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.