Northern Illinois @ Ball State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Ball State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F10 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Northern Illinois

4-3 · Power #74

final

Final

Ball State

2-5 · Power #126

▲ winner

Closing spread

NIU -13.5

✓ BALL W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

NIU 31–16 BALL

✗ NIU (84%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNIU -11.5

CloseNIU -13.5

Total49.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNIU -11.5

2 → NIU

CloseNIU -13.5

2 pts toward Northern Illinois

Total

Open49.5

▼ 2

Close47.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NIU -11.5 · closed NIU -13.5 · moved 2 toward NIUmodel NIU -16.5

model NIU -16.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 11.5–15.5 since 2023: won 84%, covered 57% (49 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (73 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNIU -11.5

CloseNIU -13.5

Total49.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NIU as a 13.5-point road favorite at BALL, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BALL won 25–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13 against an average line of 14.6; 54.4 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DUKE @ MTSU 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-14.5	45–17	W	O51
Very close	USA @ ULM 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & season form	-13.5	31–41	L	O51
Very close	UAB @ USM 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-17	34–0	W	U43.25
Very close	M-OH @ KENT 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	23–3	W	U49.5
Very close	BGSU @ AKR 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-16.5	27–20	L	U48.5
Close	BOIS @ UTEP 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-16.25	10–27	L	U44.5
Close	BUFF @ MASS 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-17	34–7	W	U47.5
Close	HOU @ USF 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	54–42	L	O53
Close	LT @ NMSU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-12.5	30–33	L	O48.5
Close	TOL @ BGSU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-10.5	49–17	W	O50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU LWWWL	5-2	71%	3-0	2-2
BALL WLWLW	4-2	67%	2-0	3-1

Venue/role: NIU away, as favorite; BALL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU OUOUU	3-4	43%	4-3
BALL OOOOU	5-1	83%	2-5

Went over in Q4. Of 270 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
BALL	4-6 40%	7-2 78%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NIU 24–24 BALL (1 tied) Series tied · 49 games since 1968 · NIU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 7 2023	Ball State 20 @ Northern Illinois 17	NIU -9	BALL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NIU−7.8 →−1.3▲ 6.5#75

BALL−11.2 →−19.2▼ 8.0#130

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

NIU

Longer bar = better

BALL

#90

Offense

Even

#97

#11

Defense

◀ NIU better

#131

−0.4 #97

Turnovers

Even

−0.4 #96

75 plays #9

Pace

◀ NIU faster

67 plays #63

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: NIU offense

	NIU off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #101	42.9 #133	NIU
Yards / play	5.37 #98	7.72 #136	NIU
PPA / play	+0.11 #79	+0.31 #132	NIU
Success rate	43% #81	47% #121	NIU

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	BALL off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	25.1 #89	16.6 #13	NIU
Yards / play	4.91 #125	4.46 #11	NIU
PPA / play	+0.05 #105	−0.03 #11	NIU
Success rate	43% #69	35% #8	NIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NIU scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	6.1 #65	7.3 #90	13.4 #85	2.7 #125	7.3 #62	10.0 #111
BALL allowed	9.0 #127	9.9 #107	18.9 #122	7.7 #110	16.3 #134	24.0 #134

BALL scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	6.9 #54	4.4 #125	11.3 #99	6.0 #71	7.9 #47	13.9 #63
NIU allowed	4.4 #56	3.7 #7	8.1 #18	4.1 #33	3.9 #18	8.0 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.