Miami (OH) @ Ball State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Tue, Nov 5, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Ball State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F18 mphgusts 29DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Miami (OH)

4-4 · Power #73

▲ winner

Final

Ball State

3-5 · Power #126

final

Closing spread

M-OH -12.5

✓ BALL W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

M-OH 29–16 BALL

✓ M-OH (82%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -10.5

CloseM-OH -12.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenM-OH -10.5

2 → M-OH

CloseM-OH -12.5

2 pts toward Miami (OH)

Total

Open50.5

▼ 2

Close48.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened M-OH -10.5 · closed M-OH -12.5 · moved 2 toward M-OHmodel M-OH -14

model M-OH -14

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 10.5–14.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 52% (65 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (84 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -10.5

CloseM-OH -12.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like M-OH as a 12.5-point road favorite at BALL, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: M-OH won 27–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 48.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8 against an average line of 11.7; 66.2 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU @ BALL 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & season form	-13.5	23–25	L	O47.5
Very close	TOL @ BGSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-10.5	49–17	W	O50
Very close	WYO @ HAW 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & spread	-11.5	27–20	L	U50.75
Close	USA @ ULM 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar season form	-13.5	31–41	L	O51
Close	APP @ ULM 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & season form	-13.5	41–40	L	O51
Close	UNLV @ HAW 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-11	25–31	L	U56.5
Close	WKU @ FIU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-11.5	41–28	W	O54.25
Close	TROY @ TXST 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total & team ratings	-7.5	31–28	L	O48.5
Close	HOU @ USF 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-13.5	54–42	L	O53
Close	BGSU @ KENT 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & spread	-10.5	49–19	W	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
M-OH LLWWW	4-4	50%	2-2	3-1
BALL LWLWW	5-2	71%	3-0	4-1

Venue/role: M-OH away, as favorite; BALL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH UOOOO	4-4	50%	4-4
BALL OOOUO	6-1	86%	3-5

Stayed under: it needed 7 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 54% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OH	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
BALL	4-6 40%	7-2 78%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

M-OH 1–0 BALL M-OH leads · 1 game since 2023 · M-OH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Miami (OH) 17 @ Ball State 15	M-OH -3.5	BALL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

M-OH−4.7 →−2.5▲ 2.2#75

BALL−11.2 →−17.3▼ 6.1#126

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

M-OH

Longer bar = better

BALL

#84

Offense

Even

#97

#44

Defense

◀ M-OH better

#130

+0.4 #42

Turnovers

◀ M-OH better

+0.1 #67

59 plays #131

Pace

BALL faster ▶

68 plays #55

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: M-OH offense

	M-OH off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #108	40.4 #132	M-OH
Yards / play	6.00 #57	7.44 #136	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.12 #79	+0.26 #128	M-OH
Success rate	42% #90	47% #122	M-OH

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: M-OH defense

	BALL off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	25.1 #93	19.9 #25	M-OH
Yards / play	4.95 #124	4.94 #28	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.07 #105	+0.06 #45	M-OH
Success rate	44% #64	42% #79	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

M-OH scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	3.3 #121	6.5 #106	9.8 #119	5.6 #77	7.0 #70	12.6 #77
BALL allowed	8.8 #126	9.5 #107	18.3 #121	6.8 #94	15.4 #134	22.1 #134

BALL scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	6.9 #51	5.4 #124	12.3 #98	5.3 #85	7.6 #55	12.9 #71
M-OH allowed	5.1 #62	3.8 #8	8.9 #22	4.6 #41	6.4 #70	11.0 #49

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.