Florida Atlantic @ East Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Thu, Nov 7, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at East Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Florida Atlantic

2-6 · Power #118

final

Final

East Carolina

4-4 · Power #92

▲ winner

Closing spread

ECU -5.5

✓ ECU W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

FAU 23–28 ECU

✓ ECU (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenECU -7.5

CloseECU -5.5

Total56.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenECU -7.5

2 → FAU

CloseECU -5.5

2 pts toward Florida Atlantic

Total

Open56.5

▲ 2

Close58.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ECU -7.5 · closed ECU -5.5 · moved 2 toward FAUmodel ECU -4.5

model ECU -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 56% (98 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 46% (70 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenECU -7.5

CloseECU -5.5

Total56.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ECU as a 5.5-point home favorite against FAU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ECU won 49–14; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 58.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.3 against an average line of 4.9; 49.9 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	EMU vs OHIO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6	26–34	L	U61.75
Very close	APP vs MRSH 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-3	31–9	W	U57.5
Very close	BALL vs M-OH 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-3.5	17–24	L	U53
Very close	BALL vs BUFF 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-6	20–3	W	U59.5
Very close	WMU vs CMU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-3.5	38–28	W	O57.5
Very close	MEM vs TULN 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	33–28	L	O58
Very close	GASO vs ODU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	17–20	L	U61.5
Very close	M-OH vs BUFF 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-7	45–18	W	O58
Close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5
Close	ARMY vs ULM 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-6.5	48–24	W	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FAU LLWLL	3-5	38%	1-2	2-2
ECU LWLWW	5-3	63%	3-1	3-2

Venue/role: FAU away, as underdog; ECU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FAU OUOOO	5-3	63%	2-6
ECU OUOOO	4-4	50%	4-4

Went over in Q4. Of 238 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FAU	2-8 20%	3-6-1 33%	5-5 50%
ECU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FAU 0–4 ECU ECU leads · 4 games since 2013 · ECU has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	East Carolina 22 @ Florida Atlantic 7	FAU -7.5	ECU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FAU−6.9 →−11.2▼ 4.3#114

ECU−7.2 →−9.2▼ 2.0#105

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

FAU

Longer bar = better

ECU

#99

Offense

ECU better ▶

#83

#78

Defense

ECU better ▶

#57

+0.3 #53

Turnovers

◀ FAU better

−0.8 #115

66 plays #84

Pace

ECU faster ▶

68 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FAU has the ball

Advantage: ECU defense

	FAU off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #103	28.4 #94	Even
Yards / play	5.58 #86	5.17 #42	ECU
PPA / play	+0.09 #95	+0.10 #66	ECU
Success rate	39% #110	38% #26	ECU

When ECU has the ball

Even matchup

	ECU off	FAU def	Edge
Points / game	30.4 #52	30.1 #102	ECU
Yards / play	5.83 #72	5.89 #93	ECU
PPA / play	+0.07 #102	+0.07 #52	FAU
Success rate	40% #105	41% #63	FAU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

FAU scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FAU scored	4.8 #96	8.9 #57	13.6 #79	7.4 #42	3.0 #134	10.4 #111
ECU allowed	6.0 #86	9.0 #95	15.0 #96	6.5 #90	6.9 #81	13.4 #89

ECU scoring against the FAU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	8.6 #23	5.6 #121	14.3 #66	10.3 #11	5.9 #96	16.1 #33
FAU allowed	5.4 #70	7.8 #73	13.1 #77	7.6 #111	9.4 #119	17.0 #121

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.