UConn @ UAB: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 2:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at UAB

Weather at kickoff76°F10 mphgusts 20Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UConn

6-3 · Power #80

▲ winner

Final

UAB

2-6 · Power #116

final

Closing spread

CONN -7.5

✓ CONN W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

CONN 30–23 UAB

✓ CONN (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -6.5

CloseCONN -7.5

Total55.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCONN -6.5

1 → CONN

CloseCONN -7.5

1 pt toward UConn

Total

Open55.5

▼ 2

Close53.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CONN -6.5 · closed CONN -7.5 · moved 1 toward CONNmodel CONN -5

model CONN -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 54% (85 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (85 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -6.5

CloseCONN -7.5

Total55.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CONN as a 7.5-point road favorite at UAB, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CONN won 31–23; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Below normal · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 1.2 against an average line of 6.2; 54.4 points a game (usually 53.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TROY @ TXST 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	31–28	L	O48.5
Very close	FAU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	21–49	L	O51
Very close	TOL @ NIU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	52–32	W	O59
Very close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5
Very close	USA @ ARST 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-9	31–3	W	U52
Close	SJSU @ FRES 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	10–17	L	U47
Close	FAU @ ODU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	16–30	L	U48
Close	CSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	24–27	L	U53.75
Close	BGSU @ WMU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	34–10	W	U51.5
Close	CSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-3	45–50	L	O53.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CONN WLLWL	5-4	56%	1-1	3-2
UAB LLLWW	3-4	43%	2-2	1-3

Venue/role: CONN away, as favorite; UAB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CONN OOUUO	7-2	78%	6-3
UAB OOUOO	4-3	57%	2-6

Went over in Q4. Of 308 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CONN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
UAB	3-7 30%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CONN−11.5 →−4.9▲ 6.6#88

UAB−6.4 →−12.4▼ 6.0#116

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

CONN

Longer bar = better

UAB

#73

Offense

Even

#83

#25

Defense

◀ CONN better

#111

−0.3 #93

Turnovers

◀ CONN better

−1.1 #131

70 plays #28

Pace

Even

70 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: CONN offense

	CONN off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #40	35.5 #126	CONN
Yards / play	5.77 #75	5.84 #90	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #83	+0.21 #112	CONN
Success rate	42% #92	46% #117	CONN

When UAB has the ball

Advantage: CONN defense

	UAB off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	25.8 #88	21.1 #34	CONN
Yards / play	5.60 #82	4.85 #21	CONN
PPA / play	+0.04 #114	0.00 #19	CONN
Success rate	45% #49	38% #26	CONN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CONN scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	7.1 #45	7.4 #89	14.6 #61	8.9 #22	8.3 #34	17.2 #20
UAB allowed	7.0 #107	10.8 #120	17.8 #116	9.1 #127	8.6 #112	17.8 #128

UAB scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	7.5 #37	7.5 #87	15.0 #56	4.3 #106	6.5 #80	10.8 #107
CONN allowed	3.8 #34	5.4 #29	9.2 #24	4.0 #27	7.9 #99	11.9 #62

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.